AI model flags possible cyclone near Hong Kong

Hong Kong's Observatory is watching a broad area of low pressure expected to form over the central South China Sea later this week, with an AI forecasting model suggesting it could develop into a tropical cyclone passing within 400 kilometres of the city by Saturday.

According to the FengWu AI model, displayed on the Observatory's Earth Weather platform, the low-pressure system is projected to begin forming in the Bashi Channel on Friday.

By Saturday, as it tracks into the central South China Sea, the model suggests it may organise into a tropical cyclone before continuing westward.

In the routine forecast released on Sunday, the Observatory predicted that the coastal areas of Guangdong province would continue experiencing light wind in the next two days with fair weather until midweek.

This will change as the northeast monsoon reaches the region towards the middle and late part of the week with the development of the low-pressure system.

Both the developing low-pressure system and the northeast monsoon would result in winds and showers in the coastal regions of Guangdong province over the weekend.

The Observatory hasn't yet issued a matching tropical cyclone warning of its own, which is typical at this stage; AI model output tends to run ahead of official confirmation, and these forecasts often shift meaningfully as the week progresses.

FengWu is among various AI models for weather forecasting, including FuXi, Pangu, and AIFS by the European Center, which the Observatory has tested operationally since 2023 to aid in TC prediction.

According to studies conducted at HKO, these AI models generally excel at forecasting track predictions in a medium range compared to numerical models but have often underestimated the strength of the storms, hence the delays in issuing warnings based on AI forecasts.