Italy’s population to shrink by 4 million by 2050, stats agency warns

A latest report reveals Italy's population will shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, undermining the sustainability of its economy and welfare system as the proportion of elderly people increases, national statistics bureau ISTAT warned on Monday.

Italy’s national statistics bureau, ISTAT, has released stark new demographic projections showing that the country's resident population is set to drop from 58.9 million to 55 million by 2050—a staggering loss of nearly 4 million people.

The trend is expected to plunge further to 45.8 million by 2080.

Record-Low Births:

Following years of steady decline, the new analysis shows that annual births fell to roughly 355,000, hitting the lowest figures since Italy's unification in 1861. ISTAT projects births will slide further to 335,000 by 2050.

Italy's fertility rate sits at an ultra-low 1.14 children per woman—far below the 2.1 replacement rate.

As the post-war baby boom generation ages, annual deaths are projected to climb from 652,000 to a peak of 869,000 by 2058.

The report indicates that the demographic shift will drastically alter the nation's social fabric and economic stability.

The Elderly Boom:

Citizens aged 65 and older will skyrocket from 24.7% of the population in 2025 to 34.5% by 2050.

Shrinking Workforce: The working-age population (ages 15–64) will contract from 63.4% down to 55.3%, intensifying pressure on pensions, healthcare, and public welfare.

Regional Divide:

The poorer southern regions (Mezzogiorno) will suffer the sharpest drops, losing millions as youth out-migration and economic stagnation hollow out local towns.

Despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s administration prioritizing policies to boost birth rates, experts weigh that ISTAT's data underscores a deep-rooted structural crisis that sustained migration inflows have only temporarily buffered.