The confirmation of Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, marks a critical inflection point in the current conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States. As the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larijani was widely considered a central figure in shaping Iran’s strategic decisions. Indeed, his voice was vital in managing Iran’s confrontations with the West and shaping its long-term alliances, such as the cooperation agreement with China, serving as a crucial bridge between ideological loyalty and pragmatic strategy.
At the time of his death, Larijani was in charge of managing three major crises. Regarding the war itself, he held the view that Iran should prepare for a prolonged struggle and expand the conflict across the region, including the Strait of Hormuz. Secondly, he oversaw the response to widespread protests and economic grievances, which have resulted in a severe crackdown and thousands of casualties. Lastly, he navigated the stalled negotiations with Washington and the fallout from military strikes on nuclear facilities.
Although Iran has shown resilience, partly by disrupting global energy markets, its airspace remains vulnerable to continued strikes. Larijani’s death is part of a broader campaign that has eliminated several senior officials in a short window, including the late Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. There are indications that power is shifting toward the military, with President Pezeshkian granting armed forces broader authority to act independently if central leadership is incapacitated. In practice, it could mean decisions being taken more quickly, but less central coordination.
There are also signs that the leadership is struggling to manage succession. Iran has delayed public announcements and kept some figures, including the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, largely out of sight. Whether this is for security reasons or due to internal uncertainty is unclear. In the short term, Iran is expected to adopt a harder military posture and harsher domestic repression. Iranian Army Chief Amir Hatami has also threatened to launch a decisive retaliation for Larijani’s death.
Ultimately, a system that continues to lose its most senior figures and may find it increasingly difficult to function effectively in a country of more than 90 million people. This recent incident is not just about the loss of a single official, rather it marks the acceleration of a critical crisis that could affect both the course of the war and the stability of the Iranian state.