ISLAMABAD: In a stark warning of how climate change is reshaping disease patterns in Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) has reported its first-ever dengue outbreak in the high-altitude district of Bagh, AJK. Health authorities have confirmed 48 laboratory-positive cases.
Located over 5,600 feet above sea level, Bagh is known for its pine forests, clean streams, and cool summers. It had never experienced mosquito-borne diseases—until now. This season, however, the Aedes mosquito has established itself in the area, raising alarm in Islamabad and beyond. A letter from the District Health Officer (DHO) Bagh to the Director General of Health Services AJK confirmed the outbreak. Cases were detected in Union Councils Chirala and Sahlian.
Local health teams carried out field investigations, sprayed insecticide, distributed bed nets, and prepared a line-list of confirmed cases. Despite these actions, officials fear the virus could spread to other mountain districts if the rains continue. “This is a turning point,” said a senior epidemiologist at the National Institute of Health (NIH), Islamabad. “The disease has reached heights where mosquitoes couldn’t survive before. Warmer temperatures and prolonged monsoon rains—linked to climate change—are allowing dengue to move into northern regions.” He confirmed that a specialised NIH team, including an entomologist, has been sent to assist local authorities. “Floods and stagnant water
create ideal breeding grounds for mosquitoes. After this monsoon and flooding, we fear a surge in water-borne and vector-borne diseases.”
The Bagh outbreak follows a rise in cases in Murree, another popular hill station where dengue was once rare. This year, Murree has surpassed Rawalpindi for the first time since 2011, reporting 62 confirmed cases compared to 59 in the garrison city. Most cases have come from the Ghel and Paghwari union councils.
Authorities in Murree have launched an emergency response. They have deployed 300 fogging teams, distributed mosquito nets and repellents, and enforced Section 144 to prevent breeding in streams and junkyards. Murree’s Deputy Commissioner, Agha Zaheer Shirazi, said supplies from the Provincial Disaster Management Authority—sprays, nets, and lotions—have been sent to the area. However, residents remain concerned as the virus continues to spread in unseasonably wet conditions.
Dengue was once limited to humid, low-lying cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi. Now, rising temperatures and longer rainy seasons have made it endemic in upland areas as well. Health experts warn that dengue isn’t the only concern. The same Aedes mosquito also spreads chikungunya and Zika viruses—both present in Pakistan, but rarely tested for. “Our labs don’t routinely screen for chikungunya or Zika,” said a virologist at NIH. “Many cases go undiagnosed. With mosquitoes now entering Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, we risk triple epidemics that could overwhelm our fragile healthcare system.”
Chikungunya, while rarely fatal, causes severe joint pain that can last for weeks. Zika has been linked to serious birth defects when contracted during pregnancy. The silent circulation of these viruses, combined with the visible spike in dengue, is a growing concern among medical professionals. The spread of dengue into Pakistan’s mountains reflects global patterns. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are helping disease-carrying mosquitoes expand into new regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has repeatedly warned that vector-borne diseases will intensify in South Asia. “Climate change is a force multiplier for dengue,” said Professor Shahzad Ali Khan, a public health expert in Islamabad. “Heavy rains flood low-lying areas and leave behind stagnant water. Mosquitoes breed in the millions. But warmer nights and longer summers now allow them to survive in places like Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.”
Suspected dengue cases in Pakistan have jumped by nearly 30pc in the last six weeks, according to WHO reports. Outbreaks have been reported in Charsadda, Sindh, and now Kashmir—marking a wide and concerning spread during this monsoon season.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has expressed concern over the worsening situation. He cited China’s recent chikungunya outbreak in Guangdong province—where over 8,000 cases have been reported since June—as a warning for Pakistan. He has directed federal and provincial health departments to strengthen surveillance and coordinate mosquito-control measures.
Experts say climate change, urban sprawl, poor drainage, and unregulated construction are accelerating the spread of disease. This year, over 750 lives have been lost due to monsoon-related incidents, and dozens of health facilities have been damaged in KP, Sindh, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Bagh’s dengue outbreak is more than a local crisis. It signals what may lie ahead. If mosquitoes can thrive in Kashmir’s valleys, they could soon spread to river towns in Gilgit and even Skardu, where tourism and warming temperatures are reshaping life. “Bagh is no longer just a scenic hill station. It’s now on the frontline of Pakistan’s climate-linked health crisis,” said an NIH epidemiologist. “If we don’t act now, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika could soon be spreading across Muzaffarabad, Gilgit, and Hunza.”
With stagnant water left by monsoon rains, weak lab testing, and warming highlands, Pakistan faces a growing threat of mosquito-borne epidemics —from the southern plains to the northern peaks.