Scientists have warned that “global warming is crossing dangerous thresholds sooner than expected”, with the world’s coral reefs now in an almost irreversible die-off as the first ‘tipping point’ in climate-driven ecosystem collapse.
The ‘Global Tipping Points’ report laumched by 160 researchers worldwide on October 13, 2025, in Copenhagen – just weeks ahead of the COP30 climate summit – has sounded the alarm once again on global inaction. The report brings forth a synthesis of groundbreaking science to estimate “points of no return”. The foremost are coral reefs.
The second ‘global tipping point’ is the degradation of the Amazon rainforest system – the same rainforest system that is now “at risk of collapsing once the average global temperature warms beyond just 1.5 degrees Celsius based on the deforestation rate, while it has already approached 1.4 degrees Celsius”, per the report.
Scientists warn that the Amazon rainforest system is quite close to its tipping point. They have cautioned yet again that large-scale degradation could trigger far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences for the lives and livelihoods of over 100 million people relying on the Amazon’s ecosystem services.
Ignoring all previous reports on the Amazon rainforest’s degradation, the Brazilian government’s decision to host the COP30 Climate Summit in Belem, starting November 10 in the heart of the Amazon rainforest, has resulted in an unprecedented loss of carbon sinks for the world. It will further accelerate global temperature rise.
The Guardian has reported that over 100 hectares of Amazon rainforest were cleared for two COP30-related roads, Avenida Liberdade and Rua da Marinha, adding that Global Forest Watch (GFW) satellite data show around 162 hectares of natural forest loss in Belem in 2024. Evidence-based trees-per-hectare estimates show that a total of 183,400 trees were removed – a loss that will have severe carbon concentration and multiple impacts.
Typically, aboveground carbon densities in Amazon forests vary in the literature from 100 to 300 metric tonnes of carbon per hectare (tC/ha), depending on forest type and region. Converting carbon to CO2 using the factor 1 tC = 3.67 tCO2, the estimates show a carbon-sink loss ranging from 96,154 tCO2 to 288,362 tCO2 annually. Global Forest Watch indicated in 2024 that the loss of Amazon forest cover would increase emissions by over 92.8 kilotonnes of CO2.
In addition, new infrastructure construction in Belem has consumed hundreds of trees, which have lower biomass per hectare than intact Amazon forest – again changing the numbers.
COP30 will be the costliest climate summit in the history of the UNFCCC in terms of green cover lost to host it. Participation of over 50,000 delegates from different parts of the world will certainly boost the local economy for about two weeks. But the loss of Amazon forests will last forever – not only for the locals in multiple ways, but also for the planet, contributing significantly to carbon concentration.
The Brazilian government’s unwise decision to cut down Amazon forests to construct roads and other infrastructure faced a lot of opposition and protests from hundreds of domestic and international environmentalists. But they failed to convince the authorities that their imprudent actions would be a sheer violation of the agreement they signed in 1992 – “that they would avoid any behaviours that could lead to dangerous climate change.”
Over three decades have passed since the day the nations signed the UNFCCC, including the large industrial countries; however, they have not “avoided any of their behaviours” contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Rather, a few more have joined the rapid industrialisation race “to lead dangerous climate change”.
The Brazilian president has reportedly stated that he is pleased the conference is being held there, and says it will be a historic summit because it is “a COP in the Amazon, not a COP about the Amazon”. He is not the only one; several such leaders feel pleased with construction at the expense of destroying green cover – never bothered by the cost their own people pay from the public exchequer or the cost borne by humanity at large.
Unfortunately, the rainforest continues to face widespread deforestation, despite the Brazilian president's promise to halt it. But his recent consent to construct roads and other infrastructure has upset scientists and environmentalists alike, who believe the damage to the rainforest will further worsen the climate impact, and not only in Brazil.
The World Bank and other credible sources have estimated the total economic cost of climate-related disasters in Brazil over the last five years (2020–2024 inclusive) to be approximately $45 billion.
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and consulting firm Oxera find that from 2014 to 2023, climate-related extreme weather events alone cost roughly $2 trillion globally. A recent study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) projects that climate change could cost the global economy about $38 trillion per year by 2050. According to another macro-study presented at the World Economic Forum, each 1C of global warming could reduce global GDP by around 12 per cent.
A typical UNFCCC COP emits about 0.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (300,000 tonnes of CO2e). Considering a policy-level social cost of carbon around $190–$280 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, the economic damage equivalent rises to roughly $19–84 million.
Do we, the citizens of planet Earth, get value for the carbon cost when almost all COPs have failed to address global agonies and challenges? It has been about a decade since the ‘landmark’ Paris Agreement (2015) was made. Has the global population truly benefited from it? Will the top 13 polluters of the global atmosphere attend COP30 – those who were absent from the previous COP – and unanimously agree to take emergency actions and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
The writer is a freelance journalist and broadcaster, and director of Devcom-Pakistan. He can be reached at devcom.pakistangmail.com and tweets EmmayeSyed