Pakistan's floods are not just a natural disaster; they are a tragic intersection of a changing climate, political tensions and our own unpreparedness. The country’s troubling history of severe flooding has once again become painfully evident.
The recent major floods, especially in the northern regions, highlight a dual challenge driven by the growing intensity of monsoon rains worsened by climate change, as well as serious shortcomings in disaster management. Since late June, over 1,006 people have lost their lives and nearly 1,063 have been injured due to monsoon-related disasters in Pakistan. According to the NDMA, a recent flash flood in the northern areas has resulted in at least 41 deaths in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and 38 in Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK).
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the total fatalities have reached 504 as of September. The damage has been extensive, with approximately 3,222 homes damaged or destroyed in KP alone. Important infrastructure, such as bridges, schools and water mills, has suffered damage or destruction. The situation is dire, with over two million people evacuated and entire valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan becoming unreachable due to landslides.
To proactively respond to the monsoon, the National Monsoon Contingency Plan 2025 was created. Still, it failed to achieve its goals due to a key oversight: the unexpected release of large volumes of water from rivers across the eastern border. This unexpected development transformed a manageable situation into a wider crisis, causing flooding in areas previously considered safe.
The National Monsoon Contingency Plan 2025 was successful in KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and the northern areas due to its focus on flash floods, urban flooding, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which are common in those regions. The plan's emphasis on local early warning systems and rapid response teams effectively addressed these hazards. However, it was less effective in Punjab, where riverine floods resulted from heavy monsoon rains and significant water releases from upstream dams in India, affecting rivers such as the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab. This combination created a flood risk that overwhelmed existing infrastructure and response capabilities, which were not designed for such large-scale events.
Transboundary water management is vital in this context. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was a significant agreement, but its success relies on cooperation and data sharing. Recently, the treaty's permanent commission has been suspended, and Pakistan struggles to predict floodwaters due to insufficient information from Indian-controlled rivers. In April 2025, India suspended the Permanent Indus Commission of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following the Pahalgam attack.
This decision, not specified in the treaty, marks a departure from years of cooperation and has serious implications for Pakistan, which is already dealing with significant water stress. It disrupts essential data sharing about upstream rivers, jeopardising flood and drought preparedness, and could potentially lead to water shortages and reduced agricultural productivity. The IWT requires annual meetings and data sharing for flood management. Since the suspension, India has shared limited flood information through diplomatic channels, but it is less detailed than in the past, resulting in greater vulnerability to disasters.
The evolving climate also necessitates a re-evaluation of our forecasting approaches, particularly regarding the increasing frequency of GLOFs. Warming temperatures are causing glaciers in northern KP and Gilgit-Baltistan to melt rapidly, leading to the formation of unstable glacial lakes. These lakes represent a significant risk, as they can produce sudden and destructive flash floods that current warning systems are ill-equipped to handle. Let's look at recent GLOF incidents. In 2022, at least 75 reported GLOF events occurred in Gilgit-Baltistan and KP, affecting a significant portion of the country and resulting in considerable loss of life and livelihoods. More recently, in July 2025, a GLOF in the Ghizer district of Gilgit-Baltistan displaced hundreds of families and destroyed about 330 houses. In August 2025, a glacier burst in the Gupis region, blocking the Ghizer River, creating a large lake that posed a risk to nearby communities. These incidents highlight the ongoing threat that GLOFs pose.
Our early warning systems and forecasting need to improve to accurately predict GLOF events, such as through integrated monitoring and data collection, enhanced modeling and analysis, improved communication and community preparedness, moving beyond traditional models that focus solely on river floods. There are considerable gaps in our forecasting capabilities, making accurate data on water flow essential. Historical data and satellite images provide only a partial view. Real-time, ground-level data is critical to understand river flow changes, the re-emergence of dry riverbeds and soil saturation levels.
This is where local knowledge becomes invaluable. Communities living along riverbanks and in mountain valleys have developed their own systems for predicting floods and managing water flow over generations. Their deep understanding of the landscape is essential. Integrating indigenous knowledge with contemporary technology is essential. By collaborating with local communities, we can identify key flood pathways, gain a deeper understanding of historical river behaviours and enhance the accuracy of our scientific models. This integration of traditional wisdom and modern technology provides a more comprehensive approach to flood management.
Pakistan's disaster risk management (DRM) has evolved from a reactive, relief-based approach to a more proactive, risk-reduction framework since the 2005 earthquake and 2010 floods. This led to the establishment of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and a formal legal framework that focuses on preparedness and early warning systems. However, the increasing intensity of climate disasters requires further enhancements to this system.
A sustainable national strategy must continue evolving from reactive crisis management toward proactive resilience-building. To strengthen this framework, three high-impact solutions are crucial. First, a stable framework for water diplomacy with neighbouring countries is essential to ensure non-political, real-time data sharing on river flows. Second, investments in integrated early warning systems are necessary, using technology such as satellites, ground sensors and AI-driven models to more accurately predict GLOFs.
Finally, a bottom-up approach that empowers local communities is vital. This includes providing resources and training for preparedness and integrating the valuable indigenous knowledge of mountain populations into modern forecasting and contingency planning.
The tragic events of this year serve as a clear reminder that we cannot tackle the climate crisis with outdated methods. For Pakistan, resilience means more than repairing after disaster; it means anticipating risks, investing in diplomacy and technology and respecting the wisdom of its own people.
Ramsha Mehboob Khan is a project assistant at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad.
Muhammad Awais Umar is a research associate at SDPI.