As the global power shift moves towards Asia, China's role in South and Southwest Asia is crucial for promoting regional climate security and tackling common environmental challenges.
The necessity of this change is emphasised by the insufficient advancements achieved through multilateral frameworks such as the Conference of the Parties and the Paris Agreement. With COP30 taking place in Brazil this year and the Paris Agreement celebrating its 10th anniversary, countless individuals continue to be exposed to escalating climate dangers without prompt ways to reduce risks. Climate change is complex, solutions are collaborative, and power dynamics are varied. =
These three components must align to ensure a just and sustainable future for everyone. This requires a strategic re-evaluation and a policy overhaul that emphasises ecological sustainability as the region’s primary foreign policy issue. Since the 1980s, China has shifted from a secluded agricultural society to a global leader with cutting-edge technology and strong human resources, positioning it as the region’s most impactful actor. Boasting a $19.23 trillion economy, China has lifted 800 million individuals out of poverty and made significant advances in various key sectors.
As the highest riparian in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) system, China possesses a total reservoir capacity close to 1 trillion cubic meters. Political thought must adapt to address the existential challenge of climate change. India, boasting a population of 1.4 billion and an economy valued at $4.37 trillion, has achieved remarkable advancements since the 1990s. Even though malnutrition is still an issue, it has helped 171 million individuals escape extreme poverty. As a country situated along rivers, India has numerous significant reservoirs that can store water for up to 170 days. It remains a key participant in regional water-sharing agreements.
Pakistan, with a population of 240 million, is experiencing a diminishing resource base. The state has demonstrated strength during times of slow economic expansion and seeks to evolve into a middle-income nation. Nevertheless, increasing climate damages, unsustainable population expansion, and escalating inflation will complicate the endeavour. Being a lower riparian, Pakistan depends on a single river basin that has only 30 days’ worth of water storage capacity.
Each of the three countries has nuclear capabilities, maintains robust armed forces, and is involved in ongoing political conflicts. Ironically, they opt to overlook a shared danger – climate change – that poses a greater risk than any military enemy. Quickly rising temperatures are destabilising the cryosphere, particularly in the Third Pole, where snow and glacier melt support over a billion people. The effects of this ecological collapse will be more devastating than any harm caused by the most sophisticated military equipment.
The impending 'climate wars' will be fought across multiple domains characterised by melting glaciers, crumbling cryospheres, increasing sea levels, catastrophic floods, wildfires, intense heatwaves and fierce storms. Disregarding these growing threats, as indicators of carbon feedback loops appear throughout ecosystems, is irresponsible.
A collaborative riparian governance framework is essential for stabilizing the hydrological system in the HKH area. Not doing this will worsen current vulnerabilities and may trigger conflicts over reduced resources. Advancing will need attention to urgent dangers that demand collaboration, even with differing opinions in other areas. Water security should be regarded as the foundation, with hydro diplomacy at the core of regional security to prevent a potential flashpoint situation.
As the world's second-largest economy, with advanced technological skills and an expanding middle class, China is well-positioned to influence the geopolitical framework of the 21st century and now needs to broaden its leadership to include climate security. Being the highest upstream country, China could launch a regional COP, followed by rotating hosts that concentrate on the cryosphere.
Traditionally, China has relied on stability to drive prosperity. Holding a regional COP will both bring together HKH nations to create collaborative strategies for risk reduction and sustainable water management and showcase leadership based on mutual ecological concerns rather than political rifts.
A unified regional approach to overseeing the Third Pole can unite key stakeholders and foster an ecological alliance that prioritises both natural ecosystems and human health. This would offer a vital framework for cooperation, risk mitigation and enduring ecological sustainability among HKH nations. In its absence, the area confronts both the threat of ecological disaster and political strife.
Leadership in climate diplomacy would further align with the region’s cultural values. For centuries, Chinese philosophy has honoured water as the origin of life. In the Analects, Confucius compares the characteristics of wise individuals to water – flexible, versatile and constantly evolving. The power of water comes from its adaptability; nations must similarly adjust to changing conditions.
Now is the moment to recognise this civilisational wisdom. Just like rivers need to flow to support life, political thought must also adapt to address the urgent challenge of climate change. A new climate security framework should be developed, founded on collaboration, environmental management and a shared understanding of human security.
South Asia faces danger and requires a regional water agreement for harmony. Climate change is an unconventional danger that cannot be addressed through military strategies. Nuclear weapons cannot prevent hydro-meteorological calamities, and neither can tanks and fighter aircraft mend broken lives or heal divided communities.
Discussions, however, can prevent circumstances from escalating into conflict triggers and result in resolutions that are beneficial for everyone.
The writer works on climate finance, carbon markets and sustainable development across disaster risk reduction and climate change.