The recent rapprochement between India and China has sparked a debate about the emergence of a new political bloc that could challenge the hegemony of the US. It appears that the world's largest democracy is shifting its focus towards Asia after flattering Western leaders for more than three decades. Many believe that the attitude of US President Donald Trump has forced Indian Prime Minister Modi to hobnob with India’s sworn enemy.
A flurry of activities was observed in New Delhi and Beijing in recent weeks, with both countries hinting at improving their ties, which may have prompted the Indian prime minister to visit the world's second-largest market. China also reciprocated, with Chinese President Xi Jinping receiving Modi for the SCO Summit. The meeting came amid the tariffs imposed by the US on the socialist country.
Many believe that if China and India manage to sort out their differences and resolve border issues, then Asia could again emerge as an important player in global politics. If the two giant countries ally with Russia and other leaders of the Global South, a formidable new political bloc might emerge in the future. Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asian States, Bangladesh and some other important countries could be an integral part of such a political bloc.
If the member states of BRICS and SCO unite, a new bloc could emerge. The bloc could be formidable because it could comprise India and China, which are the two largest markets in the world, while the group could also include Pakistan and Russia, which have some of the strongest armies in the world. Communist North Korea, which is close to both Russia and China, could also throw its support behind such an entity, raising the number of nuclear countries in such a group to five.
The possible alliance could also include some of the largest countries in terms of territory. For instance, Russia, Brazil, Kazakhstan and Iran are among those whose territorial size is considered very significant. Similarly, in addition to India and China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries in the bloc are expected to experience an immense surge in their youth populations, which is instrumental in running modern economies. Countries with huge populations could also prove to be very lucrative consumer markets, which might help the alliance excel economically, challenging Western domination over the global consumer market.
Such a bloc could also emerge as the largest source of raw materials and natural resources. For instance, Russia and Iran are top gas producers, while China has almost a monopoly over rare earth elements, which are crucial for the development of laptops, smartphones and many other modern devices. Central Asia is said to be the next energy hub. The region is believed to have extensive gas reserves that could provide the much-needed source of energy to the bloc. The bloc could also use these natural resources as leverage in dealing with the US and its allies.
From a defence point of view, the group could be very strong. Russia, India, China, Pakistan and North Korea have some of the largest armies in the world, besides having nuclear weapons. The geographical position of Iran and Pakistan is very important, with the former sitting at the Strait of Hormuz and the latter as a gateway to Central Asia and Russia, while South Africa dominates the Bay of Good Hope, another important global shipping route.
Technologically, the bloc is not as strong as its rival. The US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, France, Italy, and a number of other countries are known for their technological advancements, research and innovation. The West is still a bastion of knowledge, housing prestigious universities of the globe, while Silicon Valley remains the global leader in innovation and technological advancement. Some of the US’s allies, like Israel, are also believed to be technological masters.
In contrast, many countries in the proposed bloc lag behind. Only China has made tremendous strides in this field. Several states in the potential bloc are semi-agrarian and semi-capitalist. They might take ages to attain the technological development that the West has been enjoying for decades.
China, India, and Russia are very interested in countering Western hegemony, which has dominated the globe for centuries. If these three major countries become generous -- with Russia extending military technology to its member states and China assisting the members with technological development in consumer goods and infrastructure -- these countries could catch up to some extent. If the bloc truly promotes the free movement of capital and labour within member states, then the group entities could learn a great deal not only in industrial development but also in research, innovation and progress.
But critics believe that such a proposed bloc would be impossible given the intractable disputes and deep-rooted hostilities between important members. For instance, China and India are still sceptical of each other. While Beijing seems to have a genuine desire to unite the Global South, New Delhi is believed to be ambivalent. A number of Indian companies have already tied their fate to Western companies. Many of them have been carrying out joint ventures with firms from the US, the UK, France and Germany, and it will be very difficult for them to extricate themselves from this collaboration. Enmity between Pakistan and India is another obstacle, while strained ties between Kabul and Islamabad might also hinder cooperation.
New Delhi will have to decide whether it wants to be an important stakeholder in Asia or play on both sides of the field. The largest democracy can't benefit from cheap Russian oil and the large market of China while extracting concessions from the US and its Western allies simultaneously. New Delhi will also have to normalise its ties with Islamabad, without which it cannot access the lucrative energy markets of Central Asia, Iran and Russia, and land access to Afghanistan.
While the US and its Western allies could be criticised for many wrong policies, they did at least manage to industrialise some of their supporters. For instance, Washington could argue that it extended help to devastated Europe in the aftermath of World War II, while also enabling South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to make tremendous strides in technology and innovation. Today, these countries serve as a model for any state that wants to pick allies from the list of global powers.
China has been investing in various countries of the Global South, but it has yet to show that a country has attained this level of technological advancement. It has not been successful in industrialising any country. On the contrary, it has been accused of exploiting the Global South, with some states reeling under the debt burden offered by the communist country. So, if Beijing could set some precedents by industrialising at least some countries, it would attract the attention of many in the Global South, rekindling the hope for a new bloc.
The writer is a freelance journalist who can be reached at: egalitarianism444gmail.com