Pakistan is at a pivotal juncture. It stands with one hand extended towards the futuristic allure of Bitcoin mining and the other yearning for the concrete promise of manufacturing, exports and job creation.
Recent government plans to allocate a staggering 2,000MW of surplus electricity to Bitcoin mining may appear forward-looking. Yet, this raises a crucial question: is this shining digital mirage building a future, or merely fueling speculation?
The government’s Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC), formed in early 2025, has positioned Pakistan as a top-ten global crypto adopter and claims a staggering 15 million to 20 million crypto users in the country. By contrast, the number of stock market investors in Pakistan stands with total participation hovering between 300,000 and 400,000 -- one of the lowest in the region. Meanwhile, India has over 8.0 per cent of its population investing in stock markets, whereas Pakistan musters less than 0.19 per cent.
Chainalysis’s Global Crypto Adoption Index reinforces the point: Pakistan ranks ninth globally in grassroots crypto adoption. Yet the reality is, many of these so-called crypto users are not savvy investors -- they are individuals drawn by ease of access, hype or the illusion of quick profits. In contrast, investing in stocks means owning a tangible stake in factories, IT companies and energy firms -- enterprises that produce goods, provide services and pay taxes.
Adding to the confusion is how crypto is being packaged alongside serious technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence and Web 3.0. It’s a dangerous conflation. Blockchain can, for instance, secure the authenticity of digital documents. AI represents the next leap in computing across health, education, and industry. But cryptocurrency itself is not in their category. It is a speculative digital token and, alarmingly, widely used for money laundering. Equating crypto with blockchain and AI is like serving a wholesome iftari meal of dates and water and slipping in a cigar that’s clearly harmful. The people of Pakistan deserve clarity, not smoke and mirrors.
Pakistan faces a choice: chase the mirage of digital speculation or plant its flag on the solid ground of manufacturing, exports, and inclusive growth
The IMF has voiced concerns about subsidising electricity for crypto mining, warning that such support distorts markets and risks overburdening the fragile energy sector. Those warnings echo loudly: energy should fuel industry, not speculative ventures. Under the Uraan Pakistan transformation plan, the goal is to double exports to $60 billion by 2029 through manufacturing zones and ICT expansion. Projects like the $9 billion Reko Diq copper-gold mine exemplify long-term, tangible investment -- producing minerals, jobs and foreign revenue for decades.
Why, then, is a country that struggles with record-low stock market inclusion lured into funding speculative crypto operations? Much of it comes down to accessibility: opening a crypto wallet takes minutes, while entering the stock market remains mired in red tape. Yet many Islamic scholars caution that crypto fails the tests of Shariah compliance -- lacking intrinsic value and facilitating unethical practices. This isn’t an abstract concern; it’s a moral and financial reality.
Crypto’s resemblance to past financial crises is also unsettling. Like the Wall Street-driven subprime collapse of 2008, crypto thrives on hype, anonymity, and risky speculation -- often with disastrous consequences. Even globally, countries are re-emphasising industry over digital frenzies. Pakistan must heed that lesson.
There is a path forward, one that recognises the value of emerging tech while rooting economic policy in substance. First, halt subsidies to crypto mining, and instead channel energy and investment into manufacturing zones and exports. Second, open up the stock market to ordinary Pakistanis, simplifying access so people can invest in real businesses, not digital illusions. Third, embrace blockchain and AI for their legitimate and transformative potential, but keep them distinct from crypto’s speculative baggage. And finally, regulate crypto firmly, ensuring it doesn’t ride on public resources or become a safe haven for illicit finance.
In the end, Pakistan faces a choice: chase the mirage of digital speculation or plant its flag on the solid ground of manufacturing, exports, and inclusive growth. The world is watching -- and the stakes could not be higher. Replace the empty 'cigar' of crypto hype with the nourishing dates of real economic development.
The writer teaches financial markets in Pakistan and can be reached at: hissan3gmail.com