Pakistan marks its 78th year of independence at a time when the very idea of sovereignty is being reshaped. In today’s world, economic resilience and diplomatic agility are as critical to independence as territorial control was in 1947.
The recent wave of tariffs imposed by the US on its trading partners illustrates this shift. Such measures are no longer just trade adjustments; they have become instruments of geopolitical influence, capable of strengthening or, more often, undermining a nation’s economic sovereignty depending on its domestic preparedness.
It is in this broader context that the recent US tariff decisions need to be viewed. The US has imposed higher duties on a range of trading partners, using market access as both a lever of economic policy and a tool of strategic alignment. For many countries, these tariffs have tightened external constraints, forcing complex domestic adjustments. For a smaller group, however, they have created short-term advantages that can be leveraged, provided there is capacity and political will to do so.
Pakistan belongs, at least for now, to the latter category. Washington’s decision to impose a 19 per cent tariff on our textile and garment exports – compared to 50 per cent on India, 34 per cent on China and 20 per cent each on Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam – has granted us a relative price advantage in the US market, particularly in key products like textiles and basmati rice (rice in the case of India). In theory, this creates an opening to expand market share in one of the world’s most lucrative consumer economies.
Yet theory and practice are not the same. Tariff preferences are not a guarantee of sustained export growth; they are a window of opportunity. Whether Pakistan can convert this advantage into durable gains will depend on addressing longstanding weaknesses: high energy costs, unreliable supply, logistics bottlenecks and inconsistent quality control. Without tackling these, the tariff gap will narrow in significance as competitors adapt and buyers diversify their sourcing.
This is not the first time Pakistan has enjoyed preferential access to major markets. From the early cold war through the post-9/11 years, geopolitical alignment with the West brought aid flows, concessional finance and trade preferences. Too often, these were treated as windfalls to be consumed rather than catalysts for reform. The lesson is clear: without structural change, external advantages fade, and the economy reverts to its boom–bust cycle.
Today’s opportunity differs in one crucial respect. It is occurring in an era of open great-power competition. Market access is no longer just a commercial matter; it is an element of strategic leverage. That means Pakistan must think of the tariff advantage not in isolation, but as part of a broader positioning strategy in a multipolar, transactional world.
The political context is telling. The tariff reprieve comes alongside renewed US interest in Pakistan’s oil and gas reserves, which may overlap geographically with major CPEC infrastructure. This convergence of energy, trade and strategic geography highlights how economic sovereignty now depends on managing multiple external relationships at once.
For Pakistan, this requires balancing an improved climate with Washington against the enduring depth of our relationship with Beijing. China remains our most consistent partner in infrastructure, defence and diplomatic support. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor is central to our long-term connectivity and industrial ambitions. Pakistan has always had China’s support, both in major UN forums and as a trusted strategic partner.
Going forward, we must be cautious not to strengthen our relations with Washington at the expense of Beijing – and vice versa. Far from being mutually exclusive, the US and Chinese relationships can reinforce each other if managed carefully. Diversified partnerships enhance resilience, reduce overdependence and improve negotiating leverage. The key is to frame both relationships as part of a strategy to strengthen Pakistan’s role as a regional hub, not as a client of one camp or the other.
The symbolism of this balancing act has been deliberate. Days after advancing talks with the US on energy, Pakistan’s military leadership hosted a ceremony in Rawalpindi, reaffirming the ‘iron brotherhood’ with the People's Liberation Army of China. The message: Pakistan intends to broaden its partnerships while keeping its core alliances intact.
India’s contrasting trajectory signals how strategic choices can reshape economic fortunes. Penalised for its Russian oil purchases despite being a member of QUAD (the US, Australia, Japan and India alliance against China), New Delhi now faces serious headwinds in US-bound export sectors. Its response has been to accelerate engagement with Russia and, cautiously, China, under the Russia–India–China (RIC) grouping.
However, the new alignments in the region have their own implications. President Trump is already at odds with the BRICS countries, subjecting Brazilian exports to a 50 per cent tariff, the same rate faced by India. India’s push to draw closer to Russia and China through the RIC framework could invite further US penalties, deepening its trade isolation from the American market. These shifts create both risks and openings for Pakistan.
For Pakistan, the immediate opening lies in its cost advantage. With a roughly 31 per cent edge over Indian suppliers to the US, Pakistan starts from a stronger pricing position. But in a competitive global market, price alone will not secure long-term buyers. To sustain and expand market share, Pakistani exporters must consistently deliver on quality, reliability and delivery times. Without this, even a favourable tariff gap will fail to translate into lasting gains.
This connects directly to the broader question of economic sovereignty. Independence Day is a reminder that sovereignty today rests not only on political will but on economic capability. Trump’s trade policy is transactional; tariff preferences can be withdrawn as quickly as they are granted. That makes it urgent to translate this temporary advantage into durable export relationships, stronger industrial capacity and a broader diplomatic portfolio.
Doing so will require simultaneous action on several fronts: prioritising energy reliability for export sectors to ensure uninterrupted production; intensifying market development through trade missions and buyer engagement in the US while the tariff window is open; moving up the textile value chain into design-led, branded, and technical products to capture higher margins; and building institutional capacity through an inter-ministerial mechanism that can track competitor moves, tariff changes and market trends in real time.
At 78, Pakistan has an unusual alignment: preferential US market access, a strong Chinese partnership, historic relations with the Gulf and emerging ties with Russia. This is a rare position in South Asia, but it will only matter if it is used to break from our boom–bust history and move toward steady, broad-based growth.
In the years ahead, the measure of our sovereignty will not be how many friends we can count in foreign capitals, but how much value we can create at home, how competitive our industries become and how effectively we can engage multiple partners without losing our freedom of choice. That is the true legacy worth pursuing on this Independence Day: economic sovereignty as the foundation of national independence.
The writer heads the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) and is a member of the advisory board of the Asian Development Bank Institute. He tweets/posts abidsuleri