The July monsoon of 2025 has once again laid bare the compounding crises of climate change and urban mismanagement in Pakistan. Four intense monsoon spells, beginning earlier than usual due to a deep low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, drenched Islamabad and the Potohar region including cities like Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Multan and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The Potohar region recorded rainfall 80 to 85 per cent above normal, while Chakwal saw over 120 per cent more rain than its seasonal average. These downpours were not gradual rains but violent cloudbursts, fueled by pre-monsoon heatwaves that supercharged the atmosphere. This is the manifestation of the evidence generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warned that with every 1.5 C to 2 C increase in global temperature, the atmosphere can hold approximately 7.0 per cent more moisture, making intense cloudbursts far more likely.
The destructive power of this monsoon was not only a result of climate change but also a symptom of unchecked urbanisation. In Rawalpindi and Islamabad, the floodplains of streams like Soan and Nullah Lai have been taken over by private housing societies and commercial complexes. These encroachments, built on what were once natural water channels, leave no safe passage for floodwaters.
In Saidpur village and several sectors of Islamabad, including E11, the torrential rains triggered urban flooding. In E11, houses collapsed into water channels as the rain-soaked, mould-prone soil eroded beneath their foundations. These are disasters created by both nature and human negligence. However, along the floodplains of the Soan River, the soil erosion and liquifaction are so evident because of floodplain encroachment that every other construction has a lot of moisture in its foundations, making it prone to disaster already.
In the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan, where deforestation is rampant, there is another part of the story. Forests act as natural barriers that slow down water flow, reduce erosion and protect against flash floods and glacial lake outbursts. With these barriers gone, July’s cloudbursts unleashed uncontrollable torrents along Babusar and surrounding valleys, washing away roads and isolating communities. The absence of natural buffers, combined with unplanned development, means that flash floods arrive faster and with deadlier force. Rescue teams evacuated over 300 tourists, yet the early warning systems failed, and many travellers continued into high-risk zones, unaware of the magnitude of danger.
The disaster also highlighted the failure of early warning systems installed under various projects, which, despite significant investments, were ineffective because local communities were not meaningfully integrated into their design and operation. The absence of indigenous knowledge vital for understanding local weather patterns and risk behaviours meant these systems failed to deliver timely alerts when they were needed the most.
Urban flooding is also the result of poor city planning. Roads and pavements across Potohar are made of impermeable concrete and asphalt, which prevent rainwater from soaking into the ground. When heavy rain falls, it has nowhere to go. Drains are left clogged with garbage because they are not cleared before the monsoon season, further exacerbating flooding. Adding more drains is not the answer; the real solution lies in redesigning urban environments to work with nature, not against it.
This crisis is worsened by the absence of proper waste management systems. Many private housing societies dump waste directly into rivers and streams, choking natural waterways and compounding flood impacts. For instance, in Rawalpindi, waste is dumped into the Soan River system originating in the Murree hills, joined by tributaries like the Korang and Lai streams before flowing into the Indus, threatening freshwater supplies and agriculture downstream. A modern waste management system must be introduced where waste is segregated for recycling, proper disposal and strict enforcement against river dumping is non-negotiable.
This monsoon has shown that the old flood patterns are changing. Riverine flooding has given way to urban flooding due to intense cloudbursts hitting overbuilt landscapes. In the entire Potohar region, there were fewer rains, but more cloudbursts. These are not isolated events but a reflection of how a heating world and failing governance collide.
Globally, similar disasters are unfolding. Cities in the US, such as New York and New Jersey, have been overwhelmed by record-breaking rains, while China’s Hebei province has experienced rainfall surges of up to 26 per cent above normal, flooding entire towns. These events echo a shared reality: global warming is altering the behaviour of storms everywhere.
The International Court of Justice recently ruled that climate harm is a matter of basic human rights and that countries with high greenhouse gas emissions can be held accountable. Pakistan, which has contributed little to global emissions, continues to pay the highest price. After the 2022 floods, which submerged one-third of the country and caused over $30 billion in losses, the international community pledged $10.987 billion in Geneva.
However, by June 2025, only 42 per cent of this amount had been disbursed, and just 5 per cent was in grants. The rest was in loans, further deepening Pakistan’s debt burden. Excluding the $1.88 billion oil deferred payment facility, the actual disbursement drops to just 24.9 per cent.
Meanwhile, developed nations are redirecting climate finance towards defence spending. Under the new Nato pledge, member countries have committed to increasing defence budgets by 5.0 per cent annually until 2035, leaving less for climate action. Pakistan, like other developing nations, is left waiting for funds that were promised but never delivered.
Pakistan does have an opportunity to access financing through the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility, but this is contingent on the successful completion of the IMF’s second review in September 2025. Until then, the country remains vulnerable, trying to prepare for another monsoon disaster with limited resources.
Solutions exist, but they require a radical shift in planning and governance. Simply adding rainwater drains will not solve urban flooding. Pakistan must adopt the concept of ‘sponge cities’ that absorb water instead of repelling it. This can be achieved by adding green buffer zones around rivers and streams, restoring rooftop gardens and urban forests through Miyawaki micro-forests, and preserving existing forests at all costs. Permeable pavements must replace concrete, and rainwater harvesting systems must be built into every neighbourhood. Small reservoirs and retention ponds must also be created to store excess rainwater and reduce flooding.
The monsoon is no longer just seasonal rain; it is a reflection of our broken relationship with nature, broken promises by the world and our flawed systems of governance. Without a fundamental shift in both local and global action, these events will grow more frequent and more deadly. The July 2025 floods are not just a local disaster but part of a global pattern where climate promises are collapsing as quickly as houses on softened soil.
The writer is an environmental scientist and leads the programme on ecological sustainability and circular economy at SDPI. She tweets/posts ZainabNaeem7