ISLAMABAD: As some important events are scheduled to take place in India next month, observers do not rule any misadventure by New Delhi against Pakistan by the last week of September.
Highly placed sources reminded to The News/Jang here on Sunday that the centenary of Indian right-wing extremist Hindu outfit Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) falls on September 25. It is the mother institution of ruling Indian Bhartyia Janta Party (BJP).
Interestingly, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will turn 75 just eight days before September 25 and RSS has fixed 75 years of age for retirement of its leadership. It could be Modi’s last birthday in office as the RSS leaders have sensitised him regarding the standard operation procedures (SOP’s) of the RSS in this regard.
Former Indian home minster LK Advani and union minister Murli Monhar Joshi were denied party ticket in last year’s Indian general polls on account of the same. The sources indicated that Pakistan is keeping vigilant eye on the Indian actions like troops movement, misuse of media and diplomatic mischief.
Commenting on the developments, Pakistan’s former foreign secretary and director general Institute for Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) Ambassador Sohail Mahmood said that the world heaved a sigh of relief that these two countries had stepped back from the brink of catastrophic conclusion on May 10. However, India has at different levels and at various points stated that there was only a “pause” and that Operation Sindoor would continue in different forms.
Mahmood, who had served as Pakistan’s high commissioner in India till April 2019, reminded that inherent risks in such belligerent thinking and rhetoric did exist. “Pakistan does not take this lightly and has since repeatedly affirmed that it would fully exercise its right to self-defence as enshrined in the UN Charter and would resolutely thwart any act of aggression.” The ambassador recalled that the recent history also illustrates a disturbing trend: The India-Pakistan relationship has become a hostage to the BJP’s domestic politics and its electoral calculus.
Every time during Lok Sabha or any important state assembly elections, the Pakistan “bogey” is resurrected, hyper-nationalism is stoked, and an attempt made to garner votes. The BJP has often seen that this formula works and delivers electoral dividends. As such, there is little incentive for them to change track.
“Besides the upcoming Bihar elections, the centenary of the RSS this year is another highly significant development in India’s domestic context. Next year, in 2026, there are several other Indian states — including Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal — scheduled to have assembly elections. Notably, as these milestones draw closer, internal critique of the BJP government on a range of issues from governance to security to foreign policy is growing,” Ambassador Mahmood warned. “Keeping the past pattern in view, it can be surmised that Pakistan-India relations would face increased pressure and externalisation of internal challenges. Even false flag operation cannot be ruled out.”
He reminded that for its part, Pakistan has effectively dealt with these risks and threats from India at multiple levels. “One, Pakistan has maintained both vigilance as well as defence preparedness to deal with any Indian military misadventure and given a firm response as and when it has occurred. Secondly, Pakistan has made consistent efforts to raise global awareness about India’s aggressive designs, including its false flag operations and so-called ‘surgical strikes’ or cross-border operations.”
Ambassador Mahmood said that in the recent conflict in May 2025, the world witnessed Pakistan’s restraint and responsibility on the one hand and swift and effective response to Indian military aggression on the other. “In fact, Pakistan simultaneously dominated the military, diplomatic, and information domains.” He cautioned that in South Asia’s nuclearised environment, it was absolutely essential to act with extreme prudence. Pakistan has consistently drawn the international community’s attention to India’s deeply flawed notion of “space for limited conventional war under the nuclear threshold”.
“This misguided thinking has pushed the region repeatedly towards conflict and led to dangerous levels of escalation in recent years.” Pakistan’s former envoy to India said that while the nuclear deterrence holds, the environment was fraught with fragility and enhanced risks. “There is a need for the two countries and the world community at large to engage on measures for enhanced strategic stability in the region, some kind of crisis management mechanism, further confidence-building measures, and eventually a move towards dispute resolution,” he added. “As long as Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains unresolved, the hopes for sustainable peace in South Asia would remain unrealised. While Pakistan maintains strict vigilance and is fully capable of thwarting Indian aggression, it is also cognisant of the indispensable role of diplomacy.”
He recalled that Pakistan has never shied away from dialogue in the past and it would not do so in the future. “Dialogue is not a concession from any one side to another.” To a query, he said that it was an indispensable means worldwide to raise mutual concerns, better understand each other’s positions and redlines, work to find common ground, and negotiate an agreed way forward. “It is hoped that New Delhi would fundamentally rethink its present policy and posture towards Pakistan, which has not only not delivered the desired results but has in fact been counterproductive for India and the region. It is, however, a matter of conjecture whether the wisdom and foresight to craft a new course for India-Pakistan relations and South Asia at large exists in New Delhi,” Ambassador Mahmood opined.
Pakistan’s former ambassador to US and UK Dr Maleeha Lodhi, while dilating upon the Pakistan-India tensions, recently remarked that the four-day military conflict between Pakistan and India was their sixth crisis in the past 25 years. Every crisis has been more dangerous than the previous one and left their troubled relations in a worse state.
On May 7 India attacked Pakistan after the Pahalgam terrorist incident and Pakistan retaliated. This was the first time they attacked each other’s mainland with missile and airstrikes as well as deployed new generation technology and weapons including armed drones. “Never before had they edged so close to all-out war after becoming nuclear weapon states,” she said, adding: “The reality is that India failed to achieve its military objectives in the conflict in spite of Modi’s unsubstantiated assertions of having destroyed ‘terrorist infrastructure’.”
Dr Lodhi said India miscalculated the consequences of its actions. “Its resort to a military ‘solution’ for a terror attack backfired. The claim that a new norm has been created by India flies in the face of facts. The assertion that henceforth India would respond militarily if there is another terror attack is easier said than done, given the unedifying outcome of the latest crisis for New Delhi. With the credibility of Pakistan’s conventional deterrence re-established if not strengthened, the costs for India could be even higher the next time around for it to consider similar action. India got a new normal but not the one it wanted. An uneasy truce prevails between Pakistan and India with dim prospects of any diplomatic re-engagement,” she added.