It is a historically proven truth that military defeats lead to a loss of political power, especially in democracies. Even before democracies, Napoleon’s grip on power loosened after his ignominious retreat from Russia in 1812.
Tsar Nicholas II of Russia’s slide from power was also hastened by Russian defeats under his reign in the Russo-Japanese War and the military humiliations at Tannenberg and the Masurian Lakes. The same fate awaited the once-mighty Habsburg and Ottoman Empires after the military defeats of World War I.
Closer to home in India, three-term prime minister Nehru was not the same man he once was after the military humiliation of 1962 at the hands of China. The same fate awaited General Yahya Khan after the 1971 war, when the nation and his own institution forced him to resign as President. The defeat in the Falklands War in 1982 also prised open the Argentine military junta’s vice-like grip on power, leading to a democratic transition. Since hanging on to power by autocrats after a military defeat has proven exceedingly difficult in the past, one can only imagine the plight of democrats who must face democratic accountability.
Though no American president was forced to resign due to setbacks in the Vietnam War, Lyndon Johnson’s decision not to seek re-election in 1968 is ascribed to failures in Vietnam. Presently, the spectre of military defeat – or the possibility of unrealised war aims – haunts the Russian, Ukrainian and Israeli leaderships as they prosecute their respective wars. This may be the single most significant stumbling block preventing a negotiated end to the raging conflicts, which benefit no one except the military-industrial complex. It is in this context that the political discomfiture of Indian Prime Minister Modi becomes apparent.
After losing the four-day aero-missile joust that he initiated, Modi cuts a forlorn figure, moping in frustration at his 7, Race Course Road residence in New Delhi. Modi had ratcheted up the tension and whipped up war hysteria using the Pahalgam terrorist attack as an excuse to attack Pakistan in May this year, principally to gain domestic political dividends before the Bihar state elections.
This was a familiar Modi playbook, in which he was ably supported by the RSS militant cadre’s organisational muscle in the past. The template of the playbook was based on raising communal tensions against minorities at home and accusing Pakistan of terrorism.
In 2002, a false flag operation involving the burning of a train at Godhra was employed as an excuse to foment anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat, in which around 2,000 Muslims were brutally killed and their properties torched. In 2013, Modi orchestrated the Muzaffarnagar riots to stoke anti-Muslim hatred, leading to the killing of over 150 Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, to win the 2014 elections. According to the ex-governor of IIOJK Satya Pal Malik, India had orchestrated the Pulwama attack against its own security forces’ convoy in 2019 as an excuse to launch aerial attacks against Pakistan in Balakot. The objective, as always, was to earn right-wing Hindu votes on the eve of a national election.
On April 22 this year, the same playbook was used once too often to shore up the sagging BJP popularity before the impending Bihar state assembly elections. The script went awry, as no evidence – not even a trumped-up version – could be found to substantiate Indian claims, while Pakistan responded with circumspection and gravitas, exposing the mendacious Indian assertions through better diplomacy and media communication. The piece de resistance, however, was the stout Pakistani response to Indian cruise missile attacks against civilian targets inside Pakistan on the same night, when the world was stunned to find six high-performance Indian jets downed, including three 4.5-generation Rafales.
When the flustered Indians responded with further cruise attacks and drone swarms to avenge their humiliation, another setback awaited them. Pakistan struck with its guided rocket artillery across the international border as well as the Line of Control, taking out the much-vaunted S-400 anti-ballistic missile defence systems, along with other missile storage sites and military installations. When the rapid escalatory spiral unnerved the Indians, they sought US mediation, which was duly provided through the active efforts of President Trump, who played a very positive and important role in convincing both countries to cease fire.
After failing in its cross-border caper to win domestic brownie points, Modi lost his mojo and pressed the panic button by sending parliamentary delegations abroad, relying on fork-tongued demagogues like Shashi Tharoor, whose elocution could no longer conjure miracles in the absence of any evidence of Pakistani complicity in the Pahalgam incident. When all else failed, a salvo of fresh threats was hurled at Pakistan, along with naming and shaming the U.S. leadership for not going along with the concocted Indian narrative.
Having failed to convince the world of Pakistani complicity and having lost respect abroad as well as at home, where the charged-up right-wing Hindutva RSS Karsewaks now root for a next round of unwinnable war with Pakistan, Modi is on the real horns of a dilemma. His entire gang of four faces a comeuppance at home, as both political opposition and right-wing Hindutva extremists bay for their blood. The comical measures, like awarding gallantry medals to dead Indian pilots whose deaths were earlier denied, have further exposed Modi’s lies.
Mohan Bhagwat, the religious ideologue heading the militant Hindu organization RSS, whose 84,877 Shakhas (militant branches) sustain their political front BJP, has recently indicated his retirement after attaining the age of 75. This is seen as a veiled hint at Modi’s retirement, along with that of the old guard, such as Amit Shah. The ignominious defeat in the four-day war in May, like all past military defeats, is sure to exact its inexorable toll on PM Modi’s hold on power.
The first arrows for his scalp have already been fired domestically, and it is not a matter of if, but when his hate-propped edifice of political power comes crashing down. The main lessons from all this are that narratives based on lies never sell, and wars based on those narratives never pay.
The writer is a security and defence analyst. He can be reached at: rwjanjhotmail.com