LAHORE: Pakistan stands at a critical demographic juncture -- grappling with the challenge of a growing, jobless youth population today and bracing for the rising costs of an ageing society tomorrow.
As the population climbs towards an estimated 370 million by 2080, the country will face a stark shift: from a youth-heavy nation to one with a significant elderly population requiring structured eldercare. Without proactive planning, this transition could severely strain Pakistan’s economic capacity and social support systems.
Yet, with the right investments and policies, this demographic moment offers a powerful opportunity. As of 2025, over 64 per cent of the population is under the age of 30. More than 60 million Pakistanis fall within the 15-29 age bracket -- commonly termed the “youth bulge.” This cohort can become an engine of economic growth -- if equipped with quality education, market-relevant skills, and meaningful employment.
Unfortunately, youth unemployment is on the rise, and job creation remains sluggish -- particularly in the manufacturing and formal service sectors. Women’s labour force participation is just 21 per cent.
As emerging economies like Pakistan transition towards demographic maturity, two key lessons from developed nations stand out. First, governments must ensure that their youth are globally competitive. This extends beyond access to education -- it requires systemic improvements in education quality, curriculum relevance, vocational training, and digital fluency. Pakistan currently spends just 1.7 per cent of GDP on education, compared to 4-6 per cent in many peer countries -- a gap that must be urgently addressed.
Second, the private sector must be enabled to generate employment. Evidence from outperforming developing economies points to the importance of large, globally competitive firms. For such firms to thrive, Pakistan needs a stronger ecosystem: transparent governance, better access to finance, modern infrastructure, and rule-of-law-based protection for intellectual property and investment.
Pakistan’s existing model of old-age support -- largely informal and family-based -- will not withstand the demographic shift. By 2050, the share of the population aged 65 and above will nearly double. To meet this challenge, formal systems must be developed now.
That includes expanding pension coverage, promoting private savings, and enhancing financial inclusion. As of 2023, fewer than 5.0 percent of Pakistanis are covered by any form of pension, leaving the majority vulnerable in later life. Early action to formalise and extend coverage -- especially to informal workers -- could avert future fiscal strain.
Public health investment is equally vital. At present, Pakistan allocates just 2.2 per cent of GDP to health -- and much of that spending is focused on curative rather than preventive care. A shift towards preventive healthcare, improved nutrition, and promotion of physical activity is essential to help older citizens remain active and independent for longer.
Crucially, Pakistan must tap into the untapped potential of its women. Raising female labour force participation -- particularly in urban services -- would substantially widen the productive base of the economy. Similarly, rural youth, often overlooked in digital and skills initiatives, must be brought into the fold through mobile training centres, online education, and rural enterprise hubs.
Demographic change is rarely abrupt -- it moves like a slow tide, making it deceptively easy to ignore until its impact becomes overwhelming. Pakistan still has time to act, but that window is closing.
Failing to prepare risks not only squandering the demographic dividend of today’s youth, but also leaving the nation dangerously exposed to the financial and social burdens of tomorrow’s ageing population. Planning for demographic resilience is no longer optional -- it is a national imperative.