India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken a radical turn, one that confuses nationalism with exclusion, centralism with suppression and authoritarianism.
While many see India’s rise as regional dominance, a closer look reveals a country increasingly paralysed by its own contradictions. Modi’s obsession with ideological purity, centralised power and media image has masked deep governance failures. Dissent is suppressed through arrests, surveillance and social exclusion Laws on sedition, defamation, and counterterrorism have been used to target critics and journalists, with investigative agencies like the CBI and ED employed against dissenting voices.
The judiciary and investigative bodies have come under intense executive pressure, raising concerns about democratic decay and a weakened separation of powers. Parliamentary debate has been reduced to ritual rather than substance, while strategic discourse takes a back seat.
Modi’s Hindutva-driven agenda has shaken India’s federal and secular structure. The abrogation of Article 370, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and repeated crackdowns on dissent have alienated regions like Kashmir, Punjab, Assam, and Manipur. In Mizoram, unrest has persisted for two years, with a lack of response from the central government.
This nuanced discord between India’s democratic image and its reality presents a unique opportunity for Pakistan: to pursue a foreign policy based not on emotion, but on calculated restraint, genuine reform, and strategic preparedness.
India’s secular identity, crucial to its unity as a diverse nation, is under immense strain. The rise of Hindutva has empowered ideological allies of the ruling party, the RSS and VHP, whose ‘Ghar Wapsi’ campaign aims to redefine national identity in Hindu terms. Rooted in the Hindu Samaj theory of the 1920s, this mindset seeks cultural homogenisation under the guise of religious reconversion. While not always expressed through formal government policy, it aligns closely with the Modi administration’s majoritarian vision. Hence, India’s ethnic and religious diversity, once its greatest asset, has become its political fault line.
India’s overly trumpeted growth story is increasingly detached from ground realities. While GDP figures continue to rise, the benefits are not trickling down to the people. Instead, they are squeezing the middle class. Incomes have stagnated amid inflation and job insecurity, eroding purchasing power and domestic demand. Over 57 per cent of Indians still rely on subsidised food grains, highlighting persistent poverty through the Public Distribution System.
Meanwhile, net foreign direct investment (FDI) collapsed by 96 per cent in FY2025, reflecting evaporating investor confidence. Major global firms, such as Ford, General Motors, Harley-Davidson, Holcim, Metro, Ca refour, Uber Eats, Dunkin’ Doughnuts, Samsung Display and RBS, have exited or scaled down operations, citing low returns, policy inconsistency, and regulatory barriers.
According to government disclosure, 2,783 foreign companies and their subsidiaries shut down operations in India between 2014 and November 2021, out of approximately 12,458 active subsidiaries. These subsidiaries include City Bank, 1st Rand Bank, Barclays, HSPC, BNP Paribas, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Novates, Testazanica, Pfizer, Shoply and GSK.
Consumer-driven sectors, such as housing and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), are slowing, while credit defaults are rising, indicating broader financial stress. This culminated in the May-June 2025 crash of the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark index, marking its steepest drop in three decades, a collapse driven by collapsing domestic confidence rather than global shocks.
In contrast to China, where growth has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, India’s model remains top-heavy, with minimal trickle-down effect. While the economy expands on paper, benefits bypass the masses, revealing a widening gap between macroeconomic indicators and the standard of living of most Indians.
At the foreign relations front, India’s diplomatic isolation has deepened under Modi’s coercive and nationalistic foreign policy. At the 2023 Munich Security Conference, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s authoritative tone symbolised this shift.
India is now seen as a defiant and difficult partner rather than a cooperative regional power. His posture drew rebuke even from traditionally supportive Western allies. Regionally, India has alienated several neighbours: Bhutan over its assertive foreign policy stance; Nepal over cartographic claims and border disputes; and Sri Lanka, which has gravitated toward China in response to India’s economic pressure tactics.
On the battlefield, Operation Sindoor exposed the Modi government’s limited understanding of modern warfare, where success depends on digital networks, real-time data and integrated combat systems. Despite deploying Rafale jets, critical delays in the delivery of supporting equipment undermined operational effectiveness. This gap was publicly acknowledged by Air Chief Marshal A P Singh, who warned that persistent delays in procurement timelines are consistently weakening combat readiness, raising serious concerns about India’s preparedness for modern, technology-driven conflict.
In its northwest, China was provoked by India’s abrogation of Article 370 and its reference to ‘East Tibet’, contributing to the deadly Galwan Valley clashes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Meanwhile, allegations of India’s involvement in extraterritorial assassinations of Sikh and Kashmiri activists in Canada and the US have triggered outrage and official inquiries in Western capitals.
In Bangladesh, the fall of the Hasina government followed a wave of protests partly fueled by growing resentment over Dhaka’s perceived subservience to India and compounded by Amit Shah’s derogatory ‘termites’ remark, which likened Bangladeshi migrants to pests. This surge in anti-India sentiment among young people and opposition parties now poses a long-term strategic headache for India, which had viewed Dhaka as a compliant neighbour.
Pakistan stands at a historic juncture. The temptation to celebrate Modi’s strategic missteps can be exploited by the understanding that history rewards those who act with wisdom, not impulse. Modi’s India is increasingly aggressive, diplomatically isolated, economically directionless and socially divided. But these conditions demand strategic patience, not emotional overreaction.
This is not the time for bragging. Instead, it should be seen as a great opportunity to address similar socio-economic and ethnic fault lines within Pakistan's federation. Pakistan should also (without unnecessary public display) use this opportunity to strengthen its stance and status on the diplomatic front. It is time to build capacity, foster unity, fix governance at home and turn regional disorder into a strategic opportunity.
Modi’s polarisation alienates Indian minorities and weakens national unity. Let Modi continue eroding Indian cohesion. A smarter Congress-led Indian leadership, once the driver of India's economic rise, could be more dangerous for Pakistan.
The writer is DG at Nacta.