Defence and data

The determination of Pakistan’s defence budget should be guided by a mathematical, data-driven approach. This approach should rest on three pillars: optimising limited resources, quantifying threats, and balancing strategic trade-offs. Applying advanced tools such as Game Theory, Dynamic Programming, and Threat Quantification models can significantly enhance precision in decision-making.

Pakistan’s GDP is $411 billion, and federal revenues total $62 billion. In assessing national security priorities, three categories of threats must be quantified: external threats, internal threats, and emerging threats. Among external threats, two stand out as the most significant, together accounting for 65 per cent of the total threat weight -- India at 45 per cent and the Afghanistan border at 20 per cent.

Under the Indian threat, the most likely scenario is a medium-to-high intensity conflict, with a 45 per cent probability of occurring within the next five years. The estimated economic impact of such a conflict, including trade disruption, infrastructure damage and direct war costs, is projected at $70 billion. To mitigate this threat, Pakistan needs to allocate approximately $4.2 billion per year towards military payroll, food and logistics support, army modernisation for rapid response, an enhanced air force and the upkeep of its nuclear deterrent.

For the Afghanistan border, the primary threat involves cross-border militant incursions, with an estimated probability of 60 per