Earth’s satellites at risk if asteroid smashes into Moon: study

By AFP
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June 24, 2025
A representational image of the PAKSAT MM1. — SUPARCO website/File

PARIS: If a huge asteroid smashes into the Moon in 2032, the gigantic explosion would send debris streaming towards Earth that would threaten satellites and create a spectacular meteor shower, according to researchers.

Earlier this year there were briefly fears that the 60-metre-wide asteroid called 2024 YR4, which is big enough to level a city, would strike Earth on December 22, 2032.

It was given the highest chance -- 3.1 percent -- of hitting our home planet that scientists have ever measured for such a giant space rock.

Subsequent observations from telescopes definitively ruled out a direct hit on Earth. However, the odds that it will crash into the Moon have risen to 4.3 percent, according to data from the James Webb space telescope in May.

A new preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is the first to estimate how such a collision could affect Earth.

It would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada´s University of Western Ontario told AFP. The impact would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released”, he added.