ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Monday warned of a 21 per cent water shortage during the early Kharif season due to a sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows, attributing the crisis to short supplies by India.
The advisory was issued during the Irsa’s Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting held here. The meeting, chaired by Irsa Chairman Sahibzada Muhammad Shabir, approved the anticipated water availability criteria for the remaining Kharif season (May–September).
The meeting was attended by all Irsa members, the Chief Engineering Advisor to the Ministry of Water Resources, provincial irrigation secretaries from Punjab and Sindh, senior officials from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, and high-ranking representatives of Wapda, Tarbela and Mangla dams, as well as provincial agriculture departments.
Participants expressed unanimous concern over a sudden drop in River Chenab’s inflow at Marala, a key monitoring point. The reduced flow, believed to be due to India’s short supply, has triggered a projected 21 per cent shortage in early Kharif water availability -- a critical period for sowing major summer crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane.
“If the decline in inflows continues, the shortages will be reassessed,” said the Irsa statement. For the late Kharif season, from June 11 to September, the expected shortage has been estimated at 7 per cent, assuming normal supply conditions.
In response to the emerging crisis, the committee agreed to adopt a conjunctive use strategy for managing water from Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs. This measure aims to ensure that provinces receive their allocated shares despite the reduced river flows.
The participants committed to navigating the crisis with unity and national resolve. “Internal reservations were set aside,” the statement noted, highlighting rare consensus among federal and provincial stakeholders over a politically sensitive issue.
The water shortage poses a serious threat to Pakistan’s already struggling agriculture sector, which contributes nearly 20 per cent to the country’s GDP and employs over 38 percent of the workforce. Prolonged shortages could disrupt crop cycles, reduce yields, and further inflate food prices -- compounding the ongoing cost-of-living crisis for millions.
Agricultural experts warn that reduced water supply, particularly during sowing months, may have ripple effects on rural incomes, export earnings, and food security. Cotton output, vital for the country’s textile sector -- its largest foreign exchange earner — could face significant setbacks if irrigation shortfalls persist.
An Indian newspaper reported on Monday, citing sources, water level in the Chenab river in Jammu’s Akhnoor area fell below waist level for the first time in years, prompting many surprised locals to gather on the riverbed on Monday.
Sources stated this following the closure of all sluice gates of the Salal and Baglihar hydel power dams in Reasi and Ramban districts on Sunday morning. While there is no official word on the development, sources said the gates were closed to store water in the reservoirs of both dams, which had earlier been emptied as part of the desiltation process on Friday and Saturday.The gates of the sluice spillways on the Baglihar dam have been lowered to restrict water flow to Pakistan’s Punjab as a “short-term punitive action,” a senior official had told the newspaper.
The newspaper reported, “Built as run-of-the-river projects, the Baglihar and Salal dams enable India to regulate the timing of water release downstream. At the time of their construction, Pakistan had raised objections and sought the World Bank’s intervention. India had then agreed to keep the dam’s height at 143 metres, a decrease by 1.5 metres from the originally proposed height, thus reducing the water pondage capacity by 13.5 per cent.”