For decades, Pakistan’s rapid population growth has been a double-edged sword – offering a vast labour force while straining already limited resources. However, an unnoticed yet significant shift is underway. Recent UN data reveals a decline in the country’s fertility rate, signalling a critical demographic transition. This shift, if managed well, could drive economic stability and social progress. History offers clear lessons. Countries like South Korea, Thailand, and Bangladesh strategically managed their demographic shifts, aligning them with economic and social reforms.
Pakistan must do the same. A lower birth rate can ease pressure on resources, improve living standards, and enhance opportunities, particularly for women. Yet, this transition remains fragile. Without targeted policies in education, healthcare, and workforce development, this potential demographic dividend could be wasted. However, a declining fertility rate alone is not a guarantee of success. Without strategic planning, Pakistan risks facing future labour shortages, just as aging populations have strained economies in Japan and Italy. Pakistan must prepare by investing in human capital, ensuring a smaller but more skilled workforce that can drive economic modernisation.
Majid Burfat
Karachi