LAHORE: Concerns over a potential cotton crop failure remain evident as Pakistan enters 2025.
According to the latest report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), as of January 15, 2025, ginning factories have processed seed cotton (phutti) amounting to 5.489 million bales, representing a significant decline of 33.52 per cent compared to the same period last year.
The colossal failure on the production front underscores the ongoing difficulties within the cotton industry as farmers stare at one of the lowest crop yields on record in the last four decades or so.
The PCGA report portrays a dismal scenario about the state of affairs in the textile value chain. The breakdown of cotton arrivals shows that total arrivals in Punjab were recorded at 2.686 million bales, showing a decrease of 35.4 per cent from last year’s figure of 4.158 million bales. Similarly, Sindh reported cotton arrivals of 2.803 million bales, down 31.62 per cent from the previous year’s total of 4.099 million bales. Balochistan saw a modest output of 0.156 million bales.
Regarding market activity, the report notes that exporters and traders purchased a total of 46,700 bales of cotton. The textile sector, however, showed stronger demand, acquiring 4,901,034 bales. Notably, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) did not engage in any cotton purchases during the 2024-25 season, which may reflect broader market conditions or imbalanced strategic choices.
Furthermore, the ginning industry remains active, with 140 ginning factories operating across the country, highlighting ongoing efforts to process the available cotton despite the significant decline in arrivals. This comprehensive overview of the cotton sector provides essential insights into the industry’s current gloomy state, revealing both the challenges it faces and the dynamics of market demand.
The apprehension surrounding the potential failure of the cotton trail continues to persist into 2025. Given the lack of a proactive approach on the part of the government, the cotton and textile industries are expected to navigate a difficult landscape in 2025. The Punjab government shifts focus on promoting the early sowing of cotton in the 2025-26 season, which was officially and legally banned a few years back.
However, there is no attention over acquiring advanced seed technology.
Even though climate change poses a significant threat to the cotton sector, no concrete step has been taken to address the issue.
Excessive heat negatively impacted its growth and development in the outgoing year. High temperatures led to reduced yields. Boll opening and fibre development are sensitive to high temperatures. Prolonged heat stress causes premature opening of bolls, leading to lower yields and reduced fibre quality.
Climate change is causing more frequent and intense rainfall events, along with prolonged dry spells. It caused heavy rainfall last year, damaging crops and disrupting irrigation systems. Prolonged dry spells also led to water stress, affecting crop growth and yield.
These climate-related challenges can significantly impact cotton production in 2025 too, leading to lower yields, reduced quality and increased production costs.
There is a dire need to develop heat-tolerant varieties; focused research and development of heat-tolerant cotton varieties are crucial to adapt to rising temperatures. Addressing these challenges is critical to ensure the sustainability of the cotton sector in the country in the face of climate change.