ENERGY
Most parts of the country are in the grip of severe hot and dry weather, some cities are registering record temperatures, even up to 51 degrees Celsius. Obviously, the electricity demand these days has increased manifold, and so has, unfortunately, electricity load-shedding or load management as the government prefers to call.
Resultantly, there have been strong protests against the power distribution companies and the government, and in some localities protests turned violent too. On the other hand, there have been dozens of casualties, and hundreds of persons have fainted across the country as a result of the ongoing blazing heat wave.
Currently, total installed power generation capacity in the national grid system (excluding K-Electric) is 23,617MW, but the net, reliable and available capacity is limited to 18,440MW due to a variety of factors, though this figure has never been achieved. It is intriguing that National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) Annual Report of September 2015 points out that the Ministry of Water and Power was purposefully not supplying the required amount of electricity, hence deliberately resorting to load-shedding. Power generation in the month of May 2016 has been 16,700MW against the demand of over 23,000, causing a deficit of 6,000-7,000MW, which the government is unable to manage.
According to Nepra as well as National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC), claim of the government that power shortage currently stands at about 3,000MW is incorrect, like any other vital government statistics. There have been repeated claims by the government of having enhanced power generation capacity by around 2,000MW during the year, but in real terms it is not so, whereas the demand has also gone up by the same amount since last summer.
As the month of Ramazan is approaching fast and the country is already in the grip of hot weather, there seems to be no respite for the populace from long-hours interrupted power supply, undeclared load-shedding and associated miseries.
Time and again, the government has promised the nation it will put an end to electricity load-shedding soon, all the time giving a new deadline. National Energy Policy 2013-2018 had envisaged that load-shedding would end by 2017, whereas surplus power would be available by 2018.
However, the latest deadline for resolving the issue of load-shedding is June 2018. Since performance of the government during its three years rule towards increasing the power generation capacity and strengthening of transmission system has been dismal, it is not likely to achieve the new timeline either. Nepra has already contested such claims suggesting that load-shedding might go beyond 2018; even if all the planned projects did materialise timely that is not likely to be realistic.
The revised power generation plan has envisaged addition of about 10,000MW to the national grid system by winter 2017, since a number of small, medium and mega power generation projects based on various sources of energy are already being implemented or planned across the country. The government mainly relies on completion of mega hydropower projects of Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric of 969MW and Tarbela Fourth Extension of 1,410MW.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has recently directed Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) to complete both projects before June 2017, but the long-delayed Neelum-Jhelum is not likely to achieve the new timeline either, given the fact that the project has not yet reached financial close.
Here, one is reminded of PM Nawaz Sharif’s directive, when he visited Neelum-Jhelum project on June 19, 2013, to expedite construction, and to commission the project by June 2015. The strategic Neelum-Jhelum project had commenced construction in 2008 and was rescheduled for completion in August 2016. Till date the progress has remained slow.
Wapda’s Mangla Power Refurbishment project has been delayed inordinately. Likewise, Golen Gol 102MW hydropower project, which was planned for completion in August 2017, has run into snags and is likely to be delayed. The 147MW Patrind hydropower project in private sector is progressing well, and could be completed by April 2017 as scheduled.
It is heartening that the two Chashma nuclear power plants C-3 and C-4, each of 430MW capacity, are in advanced stages of completion, and would be connected to the national grid in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Besides, the government claims that actively promoted energy projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) economic zones would be in operation by the end of 2017, which is however not substantiated by facts.
The list includes 720MW Karot Hydropower which is scheduled for completion by December 2020 and Suki Kinari Hydropower of 870MW, which is scheduled for commissioning in June 2022. There is no physical progress on any of these two mega projects.
Sahiwal Coal Power project of 1,320MW (2x660MW) is the only project expected to come on stream in Punjab within stipulated time. The under-construction Port Qasim Electric of 1,320MW based on imported coal is scheduled for commercial operations in June 2018, whereas slow pace of work at site for Engro Thar Coal 660MW (2x330MW) could adversely affect its scheduled commissioning by October 2018. Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park 1,000MW capacity is under construction, but Gwadar Coal project of 300MW is nowhere close to take-off. Wind-power projects of cumulative capacity of 200MW may also come up by 2018.
In recent past, 6,600MW Pakistan Power Park at Gadani was abandoned. Two power plants based on imported coal could not be established in Bhikki (Shaikhupura) and Haveli Bahadur Shah (Jhang), each of 1,320MW capacity, in spite of spade work being done. The fate of 425MW Nandipur thermal power plant is well known.
However, assuming that all under-construction power projects of total 7,000-8,000MW installed capacity were completed within stipulated time, it would not be practical to disperse power from these powerhouses due to inadequacy of the existing and planned transmission and distribution system. Also, the committed reforms in the power sector were never implemented by the government. On the other hand, the resurfaced power sector circular debt of over Rs337 billion in the current fiscal year has further deepened the energy crisis.
The writer is the ex-Chairman of the State Engineering Corporation
NEW PROJECTS
Installed capacity 23,617MW
Available 18,440MW
Energy Shortfall 3,000MW
Additional Proposed Capacity
7,000-8,000MW
PROJECT CAPACITY PROGRESS
Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric 969MW unlikely to finish on time
Tarbela Fourth Extension 1,410MW
Mangla Power Refurbishment 310MW delayed inordinately
Golen Gol 102MW
Patrind hydropower project 147MW progressing well
Chashma nuclear power plants C-3 430MW advanced stage of completion
Chashma nuclear power plants C-4 430MW advanced stage of completion
Karot Hydropower 720MW no physical progress
Suki Kinari Hydropower 870MW no physical progress
Sahiwal Coal Power project 1,320MW expected to finish on time
Port Qasim Electric 1,320MW scheduled for operation in June 2018
Engro Thar Coal 660MW slow pace of work
Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park 1,000MW under construction
Gwadar Coal projec 300MW nowhere close to take-off
Wind-power projects 200MW
(cumulative) may come up by 2018
Pakistan Power Park at Gadani 6,600MW abandoned
Bhikki (Shaikhupura) 1,320MW not established
Haveli Bahadur Shah (Jhang) 1,320MW not established