The writer is former executive editor of The News and a senior journalist with Geo TV.
As Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif makes one of his most significant appearances in parliament, he must be hoping to emerge from the proceedings with his name redeemed and some of the raging controversy besieging his government mellowing down.
Since the Supreme Court has returned his government’s letter to form a probe commission on the Panama leaks, an additional layer is added to his long list of woes. He must have rehearsed his talk many times, war-gamed the opposition’s likely critique in the house and strategised the future course of action. The only thing soothing his nerves would be the discovery that of, all people, Imran Khan himself quietly owned an offshore company, appropriately named Niazi Services, that he never declared anywhere.
Yet the big news in the coming months will not just be the Panama leaks or the prime minister’s address, or the discovery of Khan’s offshore company. These will have their two days of spotlight before going off-screen and off the nation’s mind. The larger story concerns the other Sharif – chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif and his plans about his future. Apparently, there is no news on that front, not of the type that can steal limelight away from the offshore companies scam. Apparently, General Raheel Sharif is entering into the twilight of his popularised career and in a few months he will be ready to be dined out.
But appearances are exactly what they are: appearances. And just because there is no cracking news flashing on the screens about the general does not mean that he is fading away in graceful silence. There are enough straws in the wind to suggest that his retirement is still an open-ended issue.
This is essentially because there is no evidence to point out that he is packing and strapping for his departure, quite intriguing for a man who had said rather early in his job as army chief that he wouldn’t stay a day longer than his normal tenure. He is fully engaged in significant pursuits that have a critical bearing upon his name as a military commander but which will not co-terminate with the completion of service as chief of army staff.
For instance, North Waziristan is far from being settled. Terrorists rooted out and territory regained are both considerable achievements, but almost two years, many priceless lives and billions of rupees later, the area is yet to be declared fit for the complete return of its inhabitants. Till they go back – all of them and not just a trickle that looks impressive in percentages – the success story isn’t complete.
Beyond Fata – and its other agencies have problems too that erupt away from the eye of a negligent media and a disinterested public in the country’s urban centres – is Afghanistan. We are in a state of undeclared, low war with this country. The multilayered peace process is moving haltingly and there is more acrimony and distrust than ever before. The army chief, as all army chiefs, has had a central role in steering the country’s ties with Afghanistan. Peace is nowhere in sight on this front.
Karachi is still a bleeding wound. Like the old saying ‘children have come to birth but there is no strength to deliver them’, the city looks ripe for change but none is forthcoming. It is in a state of deep political turmoil and all the applied solutions – to create alternatives to Altaf Hussain – are yet to conclusively bear results. The Pak Sarzameen Party is the establishment’s manoeuvre to wrap up Altaf Hussain’s MQM, which for decades ruled with an iron-fist – with the help of the establishment! This experiment too needs to be concluded.
And then there is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which the army believes must be left to the most competent hands to be handled – that is, the army itself. Any army chief would want his name to be written in the annals of national history for paving the way for this (even if tricky) game-changer in Pakistan. In brief, there are many reasons General Raheel Sharif can think of for revisiting his earlier spoken words about timely retirement.
If and when that happens – we may even believe that this has already happened – he can chose two courses of action: he may indicate to the head of the government that it would be in the fitness of things if ‘continuity of command’ is ensured for a longer period; or he can simply wait for the head of the government to make up his own mind about whether he should be given an extension of tenure or not, and then accept whatever decision is taken.
In both cases General Raheel Sharif would make waves and create news much bigger than the Panama leaks at least in Pakistan. By not seeking extension he would set the ball rolling around June this year for the next army chief’s appointment. The seniority list is pretty much well-known. General Raheel can follow the procedure and let that list go to the PM House via the defence ministry without informally indicating his own preference for his successor.
This would leave the decision to the prime minister, who would have an unprecedented opportunity to appoint a second army chief in one term and thus create a remarkable triumph of procedure, law and the constitution – guaranteeing civilian supremacy in all such matters. And, hopefully, the prime minister will not play politics with this monumental decision and stick to the seniority principle.
But in the event that General Raheel Sharif comes to the conclusion that he deserves an extension, his expectation would not be of just one year but a full tenure. The logic goes something like this: ‘A year passes too quickly; besides if his predecessor could get three years, why shouldn’t he?’ This itself would be news of high importance because it would have a lasting impact on civil-military relations.
There is little or no indication that the prime minister will consider giving General Raheel Sharif an extension. The government is holding General Raheel Sharif’s own words about his retirement to be still true, and acting on the assumption that the next chief would be installed by the end of November this year.
Yet there is no denying the fact that lobbying for a full tenure has already begun. In fact it had begun with all those sponsored posters pleading the general to stay on for the national good. But then the retirement date was too far away. Now it is barely months away, and if a favourable decision is not obtained presently, it will be too late three months down the line.
This sets the tone of the most important news story that lurks behind all other stories doing the daily rounds in the papers and on-screen. What can General Raheel Sharif do to convince Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to agree to give him another tenure?
Or, put differently, what will convince Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to agree to give General Raheel Sharif another tenure? Pressure? Lobbying? A strategic orientation to the prime minister justifying another tenure? Emphasise in various ways that an embattled prime minister cannot afford derailment of ties with the army chief at this point?
Whichever form it takes, it will be reflected in the state of civil-military relations in the coming weeks. The ambience of the meetings, the body language, the tweets, statements and press releases all will contain tell-tale signs of the biggest news story of this season, that we can all discuss but few will be able to report.
In conclusion, the real newsmaker is not the chief justice of Pakistan, nor the prime minister or opposition leaders. It is General Raheel Sharif who will make headlines bigger than the Panama leaks if he retires on time and bigger still, if he aims to get another tenure. Let us see which one it is going to be.
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