PBS set to measure data next week
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has been collecting data from different economic sectors to measure and present the annual growth figures next week, and the agriculture sector might record flat or negative growth during the outgoing financial year 2015/16, sources said on Wednesday.
The PBS may plunge into new controversy after finalising provisional GDP growth figures and investment to GDP ratio as many independent economists are closely watching the bureau.
The PBS is all set to show GDP growth in the range of 4.5 to 4.7 percent during the current fiscal year against the envisaged target of 5.5 percent for FY 2015/16, but the economists will analyse sectoral contribution.
The construction sector, services and manufacturing sector will be shown as major drivers of growth trajectory in the outgoing financial year. “The investment to GDP ratio may go up by 2 percent compared to last financial year,” said the official, who knows the ins and outs of the workings of PBS.
Overall, the agriculture sector grew by 2.9 percent in the last financial year 2014-15, which was lower than the envisaged target growth of 3.3 percent, but higher than the growth of 2.7 per cent achieved during 2013-14.
The agriculture sector is targeted to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2015/16 on the basis of expected contributions of important crops (3.2 per cent), other crops (4.5 per cent), cotton (5 per cent), livestock (4.1 per cent), fishing (three per cent) and forestry (four per cent).
But available official data of major crops showed that wheat production was expected to touch 25.4 million tons in the outgoing fiscal year, compared to the envisaged target of 25.8 million tons against last financial year’s 25.01 million tons.
Gram production also declined compared to the given target as it has been estimated at 306,000 tons against the desired target of 670,000 tons.
Cotton production declined massively as well, which was conceded by all official quarters including the high-ups of the PBS.
When sources in PBS were asked to comment on Wednesday, they said wheat and sugarcane production would remain positive compared to last year’s yield, but cotton production would have far reaching negative impacts for the country’s agriculture growth target.
The official said the PBS would get official data on crops from the Crops Reporting Departments of the provinces as they were finalising the production figures in consultation with the provincial authorities.
Renowned economists argued that keeping in view the historic trends of the last 35 years, whenever the country’s agriculture sector witnessed a dip, Pakistan’s overall GDP growth rate never crossed 4 percent.
This was mainly because the country’s overall economy largely depended upon agriculture in terms of trade, commerce and agri-based exports.
The official sources conceded that in the wake of the expected flat growth of the agriculture sector, which would remain maxim in the range of just 0.3 percent, Pakistan’s prospects for achieving the envisaged GDP target of 5.5 percent for the outgoing fiscal year have also plunged into the danger zone.