Can Imran make inroads into Karachi?

KARACHI: NA-246 is a crucial constituency for the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), but it has now been challenged by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s personal presence in the constituency has made the election more exciting, but can he make inroads into Karachi’s politics?
Imran is optimistic about hiselection in Karachi, as he is confident that 2015 is the election year. But, the question is why the PTI missed the last by-election in NA-246 and why all of a sudden after Karachi operation they have decided to give hype in this by-election. But, if Imran really wants to make an impact on the Karachi politics, he has to work really hard and needs to understand Karachi’s political dynamics. It’s not an easy city, where you visit once in six months or a year and expect its residents to be on your side. The PTI once missed the opportunity of making inroads after 2013 elections.
It’s also very important to assess why Imran Khan and the PTI have taken this by-election so seriously, though they missed similar opportunity when a by-election was held and when the MQM awarded the seat to Nabil Gabol.
Is there a change in politics or policy that the PTI has decided to take this election so seriously that Imran Khan not only visited the constituency, but has also decided to hold a public meeting on April 19?
On the other hand, the MQM looks confident and has welcomed the PTI chairman to “Jinnah Ground” near Nine Zero. The change of heart from MQM, after its initial reservations about the PTI’s decision to hold a public meeting at the Jinnah Ground shows the confidence they have about the possible outcome in the election.
However, it is good that after few untoward incidents tension in the constituency has now defused and the MQM has taken a sensible decision not to create any hurdle for the PTI in holding the public meeting. Imran today (Thursday) visited the venue and was welcomed by

the MQM leaders and workers.
The smart move from the MQM brought the political temperature down and as a result the PTI chairman did not use any harsh language against Altaf Hussain. The PTI has a long way to go if it really wants to emerge as a strong force in Karachi.
The kind of hype which Imran has already created in NA-246, it looks very difficult for him to withdraw his candidate Imran Ismail in favor of Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Rashid Saeed. This constituency once belonged to the JI prior to the MQM domination since 1987. The PTI’s reliance is on 31,000 votes, which its candidate got in 2013 elections, more than the JI candidate.
The withdrawal of any of them would make the election more interesting, but withdrawal of any of them would also defuse the election temp. While the JI voters are committed, same could not be said about the PTI. Thus, any alliance between them would only have symbolic value.
While the MQM and JI are holding their corner meetings and going “door to door,” the PTI is mostly relying on rallies and creating hype through the media. Imran’s visit to Azizabad and other areas of NA-246 certainly draws mixed reaction from the residents, but how much impact it could create in the election would depend on their organizational work in bringing voters to the polling stations.
The dilemma of the PTI in Karachi has been its organizational failure to materialize its vote bank. Even, in 2013 people voted for Imran and the PTI on its own and had nothing to do with its organization. Now, will the voters go on their own and cast vote for PTI candidate in the by-election as well, looks difficult, as the PTI leadership never reached these voters after 2013 elections.
If Imran really wants to make any inroads in Karachi, he has to give extra time and also needs to understand the ethnic dynamics of Karachi’s politics. The MQM vote bank has certainly dropped in the city, but they still hold the key because of the nature of politics of Sindh.
The JI, on the other hand, has been involved in Karachi’s politics since 1970. It always had an upper hand and produced some very good leaders from Karachi, both in the National Assembly and in the form of Karachi’s mayor.
However, it lost Karachi because of the ethnic dynamics of politics and the young team of 25 to 30 years old “Muhajir students” swept 1987 local bodies election. This dynamics has not changed much and as a result the MQM remains a dominant force.
But the Jamaat has always challenged the MQM in Karachi and came close to causing an upset in 2002 elections. In 2013, for the first time the JI got divided over boycott of elections at the last minute and as a result its Karachi body was suspended.
The outcome of NA-246 in the backdrop of the ongoing “Karachi operation” would be very crucial for MQM in particular. They not only want to retain the seat but would certainly like to win by a big margin. Poor handling of “operations” often goes in favor of MQM and the recent decision of the Sindh government to sack thousands of “ghost workers” from different Karachi departments also created a sense of deprivation among the Karachiites. This situation has been exploited, as most of them are “Urdu speaking.” The decision of the government in principle may be right but perhaps, not the timings.
The MQM sees this election as “MQM Vs the rest,” which also includes those quarters whom it feared.Apparently, there is not much interest in the Cantonment Board elections, which for the first time are being contested on party basis on April 25th. More hype is about NA-246.
ANP chief Asfandyar Wali, whose party is not contesting the NA-246 by-election, recently told me that he feared that the Karachi politics was “scripted politics,” which would not be in the interest of democracy and Pakistan.
He firmly believes there is no room for “militancy” and militant wings in political parties. “How can you do politics with such wings,” he said.
The “future of MQM” lies with the MQM itself. It has the potential to rebuild itself on strong footings. Today, Altaf Hussain is facing a difficult situation — quite different from 1992 and 1994. Now, whether Altaf Hussain quits the MQM or not, but a new “script” for Karachi is about to unfold — though in phases.
The MQM’s dominant position may be “cut to size”, which has been a pattern in our politics. The author of this “script” apparently is the same, who in the past tried to change the leadership of PPP and the PML-N. No wonder, Imran in future may face similar situation.
In the next six months, the new script for Karachi would be unfolded, but, much depends on the outcome of the Phase-11, of the Karachi Targeted Action.
There will be delimitation of constituencies, new voter lists, some changes in the demography of the city. As the next general election will be held after “population census” in 2016, the number of seats in Karachi would also be increased.
So, if the MQM manages to reorganize itself on political grounds it can retain its position, change the perception about it and can still remain the most dominant political force in Karachi.
It took almost 20 years to build the image of Imran Khan since 1993. A cricketing hero of the past and reputation of a being a clean person suited them and they backed him, even from the time when Imran was not even aware of the game plan. He became the right person to challenge Nawaz Sharif.
Perhaps, under the new script the ubran politics would be shared by more parties and Karachi’s mandate would be divided. But, as far as the outcome of NA-246, it may remain unchanged.
The writer is the senior analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.