US election top risk to world no matter who wins: consultancy

January 09, 2024

WASHINGTON: The US presidential election will pose the greatest political risk to the world in 2024 no matter who wins, with institutions of the most powerful democracy certain to take a beating, the Eurasia Group said on Monday.

A voter casts vote in US. — AFP/File

In an annual report, the political risk consultancy said that the November 5 election “will test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn´t experienced in 150 years,” a reference to the country´s civil war.

“The United States is already the world´s most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem no matter who wins,” it said. “With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is continued damage to America´s social fabric, political institutions and international standing.”

If Donald Trump -- currently the Republican front-runner -- again loses to President Joe Biden, the real estate mogul will likely once more allege massive fraud and “incite widespread intimidation campaigns” against election officials and workers, the report said. The US in a Biden second term could also face an “unprecedented political crisis” if Trump goes to jail on one of myriad cases in which he is charged, although large-scale violence remains unlikely, it said.