Mustafa Kamal’s chances of success

By Mazhar Abbas
March 24, 2016

If what Anis Qaimkhani told this scribe on Monday is true, the new party, which would be named on the Pakistan Day, has already enrolled over 20,000 members in the last 10 days. It is certainly a good beginning, but it’s too early to predict its fate unless it demonstrates its strength in its first public meeting next month.

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Still, there is a lot for the MQM to worry about and take it more seriously than in 1992. “I am an optimist and you will see for yourself when our first public meeting is held by mid or last week of April," he said, adding that the way people were joining us forced us to look for two offices, one in Karachi and the other in Hyderabad. These are the people who had been registered, he said. "We are getting a good response even from areas like Liaquatabad, Lines Area, Landhi, Korangi and other parts of Sindh," Qaimkhani said.

Although Qaimkhani has a good reputation as an organizer, but his claim looks over ambitious. The new party will neither have any Quaid-e-Tehreek nor sectors and units, which indicates that they don't want people to see it as MQM Part 2. It may have a chairman and a president, and it would not be difficult to guess who will be the founding chiefs.

Sources said all would be elected and had fixed tenures besides other office-bearers and an executive committee. The party's constitution is under process and discussion over the party programmes has not been finalised.

The mistake which they had committed in the first press conference by declaring Pakistan's flag as the party flag has been rectified and the party name and new flag will be introduced in today's media talk.

The group leaders claimed the new party would have a national programme which they claimed would be reflected from the party name and flag. They want to give something new. Does it mean that the group would not be exploiting the "ethnic or Mohajir” factor? In that case, it’s not a matter of major concern for the MQM unless “Kamal and Co” is able to change the MQM voters’ mindset.

Having seen the growth of two major parties in the post-80s, MQM and PTI, it may take few years before the new party poses serious challenges to the MQM. However, if a charge like RAW is proved against the MQM and Altaf Hussain and as a consequence, it faces ban, this may provide space to the new group.

The MQM took six years to become a political party from a student party, 1978 to 1984, while the PTI took almost 14 years to get itself recognised at the national level. Starting from 1996, Imran was recognised as a national leader after the 2011 massive public meeting. MQM Chief Altaf Hussain and other party veterans know the strength and weaknesses of the dissidents and have their own plan to counter them.

How different it will be from other parties depends on its growth as a national party and chances of its success linked to its organisational structure and issues which could attract the masses particularly in the urban Sindh, who traditionally take time to change "loyalties".

Their immediate target audience will be (1) eight millions who voted for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in Karachi in 2013, in an apparent reaction to MQM politics (2) the new voters in youth and women who got themselves registered in the last few years and saw Mustafa Kamal as the city nazim (3) those MQM voters who often gave their dissent by staying at home in some elections but still refuse to vote for others.

Prior to the PTI, the Karachiites had also given a "warning bell" to the MQM in 2002 when the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal defeated the MQM on seven NA seats. But both the MMA and the PTI could not consolidate the support they got while the MQM, because of its organisational strength, fought back.

Unlike in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where voters often bring a new party into power in every elections, Karachi is the only city, which voted for Fatima Jinnah against Ayub Khan in the presidential elections, gave mandate to the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan in the 1977 elections. It rejected Ziaul Haq's referendum and in reaction to the JI support for Zia, it voted against Jamaat candidates in 1985 non-party elections. From 1987 to 2013, the city belongs to the MQM, despite few aftershocks.

Mustafa Kamal. Yes, he has the advantage of being a leader who is not unknown to people and has also served them, when given chance. But his disadvantage is that he has come from the party which, despite scores of controversies, still enjoys mass appeal. Rewriting history in the urban Sindh will be his biggest challenge.

What better and different alternative Kamal's party can offer to the people of Karachi, which Jamaat-e-Islami, Pakistan Peoples Party, Pakistan Muslim League or Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf could not offered. So, it’s very important what they offer to dispel the impression that they are not merely playing the role of spoiler.

Kamal’s chances also depend on circumstance like the events which gave birth to the MQM or the failure of the PPP and the PML-N at the national level, which provided space to the PTI.

In Pakistan, politics revolved around personality cults. Even in a democratic party like Jamaat-e-Islami, the Amir can be elected as many times as Shoora wants but the same is not for other posts. So, within no time and much before the launch, Mustafa Kamal's posters were everywhere. Thus, the charisma factor is also in the new party.

In the next few months, we will be able to see whether the party on the one side of the Clifton Bridge will be able to counter the party on the other side of the bridge. The new party may try to remain in the middle and that is why they are looking for place for the party secretariat at Shahrah-e-Faisal or PECHS.

The Kamal House has now practically become party's office with proper reception and security arrangement. It just reminded me of 1990’s Azizabad. Interestingly, the people are the same. So, what has been changed and how will it be changed?

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang

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