FOCUS
THours after the publication of this edition of the newspaper, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) would meet in Islamabad to discuss and possibly decide the fate of the long overdue national census.
Census is an important exercise undertaken by a nation as it produces very useful data about the population of the country that helps in future socio-economic planning of that nation.
Moreover, the exercise is also important for judicious distribution of country’s resources among federating units, electoral delimitations, tax collections and other civic issues like evaluation of resources for infrastructure development.
Developed nations attach great importance to the conduct of the census and they hold it regularly, come what may, without wasting any time, as it guides them towards judicious use of country’s resources for the progress and development of their populace.
How census data helps a government in socio-economic planning of a country can be gauged from the example of Japan where population growth has been rapidly declining in recent decades.
In the last census, held five years ago, the Japanese government found that the population had completely stopped growing and now in the recently held census it has discovered that population of the country has dropped by one million over the past years. It is the first decline in the country’s population since 1920.
According to researchers, this tendency could lead to a sharp drop-off in the working population of Japan and a simultaneous rise in the number of elderly people that would ultimately result in the high health costs. Therefore, in view of declining trend in population growth, the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made it a priority to boost the birthrate in the country from 1.4 children to 1.8 children per woman, improving childcare and tax incentives.
Constitutionally, census should be held after every 10 years in Pakistan.
First census in Pakistan after independence was held in 1951. It was a time of crisis as millions of people were migrating to Pakistan from India. The second census was conducted in 1961. The third census was held with a delay of one year, in 1972, as it took time for the country to settle down after separation of its eastern wing as an independent nation. The fourth census was held on time in 1981 but the fifth was held in 1998 after a delay of seven years.
The sixth census was due in 2008 but it was delayed for political reasons. In 2010, the previous Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government decided to hold the census in 2011. The house listing was completed in 2011 but population census was delayed under one pretext or other.
Last year, the present government had decided to conduct census in March 2016 with the help of armed forces.
It had decided that both housing and population census would be held at the same time.
Speaking in the National Assembly, Minister for Inter-Provincial Coordination Riaz Hussain Pirzada hinted that housing and population census could be held separately but the final decision would be taken by the CCI.
He claimed that the government had made full preparations for the census and the finance ministry has allocated Rs14.5 billion for the massive exercise. He said all the census material has been procured.
However, despite tall claims by the government, there are indications from the government officials that the census could once again be put off apparently because of non-availability of the army troops for the security duties.
The army soldiers are already overstretched in operations against the militants in the tribal belt and elsewhere and with the crucial ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ operation entering into its final phase it would be very hard for the army to spare the troops for the census, stoking fears that it could be delayed for few more months.
Testifying before the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Statistics, Chief Census Commissioner Asif Bajwa said census could be held either in April to May or September to October.
According to him, the government needs 375,000 troops but army could spare only 100,000 soldiers, suggesting it could be delayed until October.
It will be a pity to delay this crucial exercise for another time.
Ironically, all censuses in Pakistan were held with the support of civilian agencies except the one in 1998. It is unfortunate that the successive governments failed to build the capacity of civilian institutions to conduct such exercises on their own.
The governments would have trained the civilian armed forces to provide security for such exercises but no serious effort was made in the past in this regard.
Absence of population figures compiled through a proper census create problems for demographers, researchers, students for their studies and research and for government’s own agencies in conducting important surveys.
Moreover, lack of such data also leads to guesswork and that’s why one would find different figures for the country’s population in the media ranging from 170 million to 200 million.
In view of the inordinate delay in the conduct of census, some people have started suggesting that small surveys and other official data bases could be used as a substitute for the census for the future socio-economic planning for country, but they are grossly mistaken.
No matter, how meticulously and scientifically such surveys are conducted, there could not be any substitute for the census.
The Nadra data base, for example, would provide information about those Pakistanis who need national identity cards and passports but the country is home to millions of Afghan refugees and illegal immigrants.
It is only a proper census that could provide a reliable and authentic figure about the population of the citizens of the country as well as aliens.
Given the peculiar situation of the country over the past many years, one cannot give a guarantee that there won’t be any political or other kind of disturbance. Nations around the world carry out their obligations even in the worst crises. Therefore, the government should take serious steps to hold census as early as possible to meet this legal and constitutional requirement without further delay.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad