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| Pakistani nukes are in safe hands |
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
By Mahmood Zaman
Analysts, who have some understanding of the security and sensitivity that the government of Pakistan and its armed forces attach to the country’s nuclear installations, would tell it is impossible to have access to any such facility. Even highly trained troops would find it almost impossible to storm Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. Dr Hoodbhoy, a nuclear analyst said in an interview with BBC last month that the actual weapons are safe. As far weapons themselves, he did not think they could be obtained by fundamentalist groups like al-Qaeda. The days of smuggling centrifuges out of Pakistan ended with Dr AQ Khan. Thus Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are only as much at risk as those of the US or India. There are differing layers of security and everyone is checked and double checked, while entering and leaving the facility.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says Pakistan has been active in improving the safety and security of its nuclear weapons in recent years. Pakistani authorities have clearly taken significant steps to enhance the security of their nuclear arsenal. They take the issue of not ever again being a source of nuclear proliferation very seriously”, a senior US official said in May this year. The worry about Pakistan’s nuclear force then stemmed from the aggressive advances of armed Taliban units early this year.
Since the tragic incident of 9/11 the questions about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, fissile material stocks, and nuclear facilities are into forefront. Hypothetical threat scenarios were formulated that Pakistan’s nuclear weapon or fissile material could fall into the wrong hands. When the proliferation issue generated a heated debate after Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan disclosed his deals with North Korea, Iran and Libya, the western public opinion witnessed a convulsion. But Pakistan has always adopted a nuclear transparent approach and made efforts to end the international illicit nuclear trafficking network to satisfy critics around the world.
What efforts have been made, a brief review of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons security regime may be pertinent. Its command and control system profoundly conforms to international best practices and safety measures and has the capacity to meet all challenges. In 2000, the Pakistan established the National Command Authority under a Presidential Ordinance, according to which all the services chief, the president of Pakistan and the prime minister are its members. But all nuclear dispensations are in the charge of security bosses and no one else is competent to take any decision to any nuclear related issue except the armed forces. In such a case the president and prime minister also occupy back benches. As such the security and safety of nuclear infrastructure, materials and to safeguard all information and technology related to the security and safety of the strategic organizations is the exclusive domain of security forces of the country. Likewise, a number of other steps have been taken to protect both the weapons and components in storage as well as nuclear facilities and stockpiles.
Pakistan has also, to come out from hypothetical allegations, supported all equitable and multilateral measures to control the spread of nuclear weapons. It had proposed specific measures to control the spread of nuclear weapons, for nuclear disarmament, including a convention to commit all states to the elimination of nuclear weapons.
For instance, under the UN Security Council resolution 1540, Pakistan had submitted its national report, which comprehensively explains measures the government of Pakistan has taken for safety and security of material and technology meant for WMD and their means of delivery. Pakistan has also never adopted a pro-proliferation policy, even though it is not a party to the NPT and is not a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
On September 15, 2001, as Pakistan was debating whether it should collaborate with the US in the war on terrorism, former Army Chief Gen Mirza Aslam Beg told reporters that Pakistan could not afford to allow the US to use its facilities for attacks on Afghanistan. Gen Pervez Musharraf quickly denied that his country’s nuclear facilities and arsenal might be at risk or fall into the wrong hands as Pakistan is capable ensuring the security of its nuclear weapons. American officials were then not sure then and were later less sure after two Pakistani nuclear scientists were taken into custody last week for questioning about their pro-Taliban sentiments and activities and alleged ties to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.
US officials conducted a detailed review of the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear program prior to military action in Afghanistan which included options for improving surveillance at sensitive sites, sharing devices to disable weapons and evaluating the reliability of essential personnel and security in the event weapons must be transported.
In September, the Center for Non-Proliferation Studies in Monterrey, California, considered certain scenarios regarding Pakistani nuclear safety. The first was about the potential impact of political instability, the second was the likelihood of nuclear terrorism, and the third related to the consequences of any temporary loss of centralized control over nuclear storage sites. After analyzing each of those scenarios in detail, the center’s report concluded that public concerns about the security of Pakistan’s fissile material installations and safe custody of its strategic weapons might be overstated.
The Bush administration started a program to assist Pakistan’s military with equipment and training on nuclear security. The official also credited Pakistan with improving export controls and participating in a program of pre-screening US-bound cargo from the port of Bin Qasim with radiation scanning.
Pakistan’s president felt compelled to respond publicly to those concerns by stating that the country’s atomic arsenal is beyond the grasp of Islamist militants. “I want to assure the world that the nuclear capability of Pakistan is under safe hands,” President Asif Ali Zardari said in a CNN interview that followed the concern expressed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. President Barack Obama seemed satisfied with President Zardari’s commitment when he said last week, “We have huge strategic interests, huge national security interests in making sure that Pakistan is stable and that you don’t end up having a nuclear-armed militant state.”
That is why Clinton appeared a satisfied person when she told a news conference with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband that although militant attacks in Pakistan show an “increasing” threat to the state, “we feel confident Islamabad is fully in control of its nuclear arsenal.” Miliband endorsed her view saying, “we see no evidence that militants are going to take over the state; we have confidence in the Pakistani government and the military’s control over nuclear weapons.”
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ISSN 1563-9479 
