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| Is Benazir-Musharraf confrontation for real? |
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Tuesday, November 13, 2007
News Anaylsis
By Shafqat Mahmood
LAHORE: Since the declaration of emergency, we are seeing the re-emergence of the old Benazir Bhutto. Her rhetoric is rebellious, her attitude defiant, and her tactics of someone who is on the warpath. Taking a cue from her, the PPP workers have also started to get restless, particularly in Sindh. There have been pro-democracy demonstrations in Karachi and a strike in some rural parts of the province. In Punjab too there are stirrings within the ranks although not much has happened so far.
The police after treating the PPP and its leadership gingerly in the days following the imposition of martial law have also started to target if not the leadership than at least the workers. Hundreds have reportedly been arrested throughout the country. The PPP planned rally in Rawalpindi was also not allowed to happen and a small protest in Karachi was broken up quite brutally.
It does not take long for the PPP workers to go into a protest mode because the partyís essential ethos is anti establishment. The kind of person attracted to the party is a bit of rebel in his or her own milieu whether it is a village, a small town, or parts of a large city. Quite used to taking on the local establishment, he or she does not require too much goading to take on the state. No wonder then, that the PPP has always been great in opposition. It is when it tries to become the establishment that problems emerge.
And they did when Benazir cut a deal with Musharraf. It demoralised the party workers who did not look at the General or the Army as a natural ally. They rallied around her when she came back to Pakistan, but their heart was full of cynicism. When she started to take on the regime no one was happier than the hard-core PPP supporters and they will make a good fist of any fight she gets into. But, is this a real fight or an elaborate charade designed to shore up her public image?
Let us look at some facts. While Nawaz Sharif, the only other person with a real following in the country, was summarily dispatched to Saudi Arabia and the top leadership of his party arrested, she is being given a relatively free run. She was allowed to travel to Islamabad and although her rally at Liaquatbagh was stopped, her speech to the waiting media from her house was broadcast on the state run television. She was also allowed to grandstand in the judicial colony when she made a gesture of going to see the chief justice. This treatment was repeated when she visited the camp of protesting media people.
Most tellingly, she was allowed to hold a reception in the Senate lounge for the diplomatic community. This is a building that has been out of bounds for every other opposition party. Considering that Human Rights Commission of Pakistan members were picked up from their office for just holding a meeting, and almost every other opposition politician of note has been picked up by the police, this is an obvious special treatment.
Benazir has also been virtually given a VIP status on her Lahore visit with special police escorts and commandos guarding her. The security arrangements on her route and on the places she visits are also the kind reserved for senior government functionaries such as the president, the prime minister and the chief ministers. While she is obviously target for terrorists and should be given the highest possible security, there is little doubt that the government is taking this task seriously.
In her interviews too, the PPP leader has not ruled out any further dialogue with the General. She has her caveats, most important being the removal of martial law, but in essence she has not said that she will not work with him anymore. This is as clear an indication as any that the she has not burnt her boats as far as General Musharraf is concerned. She is testing the limits of his patience by her aggressive tactics but the essentials of the arrangement worked out before the presidential election could well be intact.
This feeling is also bolstered by the comments coming from the United States. Charles Krauthammer is a right-wing columnist who closely reflects the views of the Bush administration. Appearing on Fox News, sadly the only channel besides Sky News that one is allowed to watch, he was of the view that the best outcome for Pakistan would be Bhutto winning the election and becoming prime minister and Musharraf remaining a civilian president with reduced powers. Every other comment coming from the US, whether through opinion pieces or views of presidential candidates, also see a central role for Benazir Bhutto in Pakistanís next government.
General Musharraf in Sundayís press conference spoke scathingly about Benazir and down played her chances in the next elections. Benazir is not holding herself back either and is saying fairly nasty things about him. Fortunately we will not have to wait too long to find out what is really going on. The acid test for me will be how the government treats her proposed ëlong marchí to Rawalpindi. If it is allowed to go ahead albeit with some obstacles, it will confirm that this whole thing is an elaborate farce. If she is firmly stopped, it may signal the end of the deal.
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ISSN 1563-9479 
