By Rahimullah Yousafzai.
Signed on May 21, the 16-point handwritten accord in Urdu is a comprehensive document of give-and-take by the two sides. The militants, grouped under a faction of the Tanzim Nifaz Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), have renounced militancy in return for acceptance of their long-standing demand that Shariah, or Islamic law, be enforced in Swat and the rest of Malakand region by amending the two similar ordinances promulgated in response to the earlier militant uprisings in 1994 and 1999. They have promised not to challenge the writ of the state, refrain from attacking security forces and government installations and stop opposing girls' education and immunisation of children. They also denounced suicide bombings and agreed to disband their private militia. The carrying of unlicensed arms in Swat was banned and suspected militants in government custody will be released.
Though it is not yet announced, a general amnesty by the government for the militants will cover their leader Fazlullah and his top lieutenants. The government also gave in to the militants' demand to retain control of the faction's sprawling mosque and madressah complex in Fazlullah's village, Mamdheray, and establish an Islamic university there and allow them continued use of their FM radio channel. It is unclear whether the radio will be used for airing religious programmes only or also discussing political issues, as was the case in the past.
The Swat peace agreement has set the stage for similar accords in the more problematic FATA, which comprise seven semi-autonomous tribal regions where Pakistani courts and police have no jurisdiction and the government's writ is weak. Though an 11-member joint committee of government officials, assembly members and militants' representatives has been formed to monitor and implement the accord in Swat, there are worries that problems will arise with regard to the still undecided timeframe for eventual withdrawal of the more than 20,000 Pakistan Army troops from Swat valley and punitive action against those violating the terms of the agreement. Moreover, some of the more radical elements among the militants appear unhappy about the accord, and it is feared they will not abide by it. On the day the accord was signed, some of these militants blew up two girls' schools and shot dead two policemen. It is also becoming increasingly apparent that this band of militants isn't under the control of the mainstream faction headed by Fazlullah.
In fact, the ANP-led coalition government has by now signed two peace accords in its bid to bring peace to Swat, where it swept the assembly elections on February 18 and is now under pressure from the electorate to restore normalcy to the once peaceful valley. And it may be constrained to approach the more radical faction in case it doesn't abide by the peace agreement inked between the government and the group of militants led by Fazlullah.
The first peace agreement was with the TNSM founder Maulana Sufi Mohammad, the estranged father-in-law of Fazlullah released after more than six years of imprisonment. The old and ailing Sufi Mohammad was supposed to help the government in sidelining Fazlullah and his followers. Releasing him only on humanitarian grounds would have been a better strategy to win the hearts and minds of his supporters. The provincial government may have erred in exploiting the situation by signing a rather meaningless peace accord with him as he wasn't the real party to the conflict in Swat where his son-in-law had taken control of the TNSM and was calling the shots.
The secular ruling coalition comprising the ANP, a nationalist party championing Pakhtun rights and originating from the Khudai Khidmatgar of late freedom-fighter Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, alias Bacha Khan, and Benazir Bhutto's PPP, has been criticized by political rivals in Pakistan for appeasing and making deals with Islamic militants who beheaded opponents and tried to forcibly impose Sharia on the peaceful people of the scenic Swat valley.
The Swat peace accord also earned criticism from the Afghan government and the US, which has pledged to monitor its effectiveness in preventing attacks by the militants. Swat doesn't have borders with Afghanistan and thus there should have been no concern regarding a hike in cross-border infiltration by Taliban militants to launch attacks against US-led coalition forces in the wake of peace accords in Pakistan. Still the Bush administration and President Hamid Karzai's government in Kabul were unhappy that the Pakistan army after the peace accords would no more be actively involved in anti-terrorism operations against militants suspected of links with Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
Even more alarming for the US and its allies were the ongoing peace negotiations by the Pakistan government with militants in the tribal areas of Waziristan, which border Afghanistan and are known as an abode for foreign fighters ranging from Arabs to Central Asians and Afghan Taliban. The criticism would be annoying for the Pakistan government and military, which obviously would not like being asked to consult Washington and Kabul before taking any policy decision regarding the tribal areas.
The outside pressure prompted Pakistan's Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani to reassure the US government that it would not talk to terrorists and engage only those militants who lay down their arms. However, this wasn't true as the negotiations took place with armed groups of Pakistani Taliban who haven't disarmed and may never give up their arms. It was obvious that Islamabad was constrained to make deals with the militants, who were holding the kidnapped Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan and dozens of soldiers and using them as bargaining chip. Besides, the military had lost more than 1100 soldiers in the fighting against the battle-hardened militants since 2003 and suffered demoralization among its troops.
The secret peace talks with Baitullah Mehsud, head of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the most powerful Pakistani Taliban commander, have yielded results. The two sides have swapped prisoners with the government releasing 37 tribesmen suspected of having links with the militants and winning freedom for 18 soldiers. Ambassador Tariq Azizuddin was also freed by the militants after three months in custody through the terms of his release remain a secret. The Pakistan army troops withdrew from certain contested areas in South Waziristan as demanded by the militants and defended the move as "repositioning" of its forces. Roadside checkpoints have been dismantled on the demand of militants and the government has agreed to facilitate return of displaced tribal families and award compensation.
The unilateral ceasefire announced by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization for militant groups operating in tribal and settled areas of NWFP, is generally holding. The Pakistan army hasn't launched any new military action since February. Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is keen to have the politicians from the ruling coalition on board to take ownership of the "war on terror" and has, therefore, sought guidance from the government on the future strategy of tackling the issue of militancy and extremism in FATA and rest of NWFP.
However, the peace accords now being signed would not be easy to implement due to domestic and outside pressure and already the recent US airstrikes in Bajaur tribal region killing 20 people is an indicator of American displeasure over Pakistan's policy of making deals with the militants. The retaliatory strike by the militants through a suicide bomber attacking a military base in Mardan and killing five soldiers and eight civilians was evidence of how things could go wrong if the US and NATO were not on board with regard to Pakistan's peace overture to the militants.
The writer is executive editor of The News International based in Peshawar. Email: bbc@pes.comsats.net.pk