close
Friday March 29, 2024

Has Imran Khan planned another ‘solo flight’?

By Mazhar Abbas
May 23, 2016

As Imran Khan is maintaining his tempo of building pressure on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif over Panama Papers with back-to-back public meetings in Faisalabad and Swat, Sharifs have also worked out a counter-strategy to foil his attempts if the government-opposition talks fail and Imran Khan gives a ‘Long March’ call with or without the joint opposition. So, what direction the situation is heading for and what could be the final outcome of the "offshore leak”.

Imran -led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) also looked in a fighting mood ahead of the tough electoral battle in Azad Kashmir, which can also set the tone of the future scenario. With the PPP also in the race in Azad Kashmir, it’s crucial for the PTI to perform well after defeat in Peshawar's by-election.

If the PTI did not get the desired results in Azad Kashmir and stands third after the PML-N and the PPP, it would be a big setback to its campaign. The PTI leaders have already admitted their mistakes in the recently held by-election in Peshawar where its candidate stood behind the PML-N and the PPP and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F).

Sharifs considered Peshawar victory as an indicator of the future scenario and were working on a joint anti-Imran front comprising JUI-F, PPP and Awami National Party (ANP). Imran Khan, on the other hand, is consolidating its alliance with Sirajul Haq, emir of Jamaat-e-Islami and Aftab Sherpao.

Imran may not wait for very long, being part of the joint opposition. His hands are tied and any cracks in the rank and file of the opposition would help the government. After 126-day dharna experience, he also found Dr Tahirul Qadri, head of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), as unreliable partner.

Imran Khan, in the beginning, linked the offshore companies with corruption. However, his campaign against the Sharif family received a setback when further leaks disclosed various companies of the top PTI leaders.

Nawaz Sharif, on the other hand, also knows that crisis was not over yet. He will have to come out clean through a judicial forum. The government has succeeded in defusing tension by forming a joint parliamentary committee to reach on an agreement on the terms of reference (ToRs) for setting up a judicial commission. The ToRs may not be confined to the PM family. And if the names of the Sharif family would be mentioned, the names of opposition leaders including Imran Khan, Jehangir Tareen, Aleem Khan and Saifullahs would also be included in it.

Imran Khan is suspicious of the recent visit of the PM to London for the second medical check-up in a month at a time when Maulana Fazlur Rehman would also be there and some speculations suggest the JUI leader’s possible contact with former president Asif Ali Zardari.

However, Asif Zardari, known for his political intrigues, would be more careful and want Sharif to take some confidence-building measures, particularly related to Karachi operation and the role of National Accountability Bureau (NAB).

Asif Zardari is so far maintaining distance and perhaps would like to see Sharif get much weaker before they meet. He likes to see what kind of relief Sharif can give to his men, some of whom facing cases in Karachi.

At the same time, Zardari also won't like to see the PTI in a position to win the next polls, but would be happy to see split in Punjab's mandate to an extent that no single party be in a position to form the next government.

In Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Zardari has a personal friend for variety of reasons and one cannot rule out the possibility of their meeting in London. So, the chances of "mini London Plan," cannot be ruled out.

However, the Maulana may face some opposition within the JUI as one of its senior central Shura members told this writer, "The JUI should not play the role of PML-N's B team.”

Therefore, Imran Khan is pursuing his plan and has even taken his close aides into confidence. His decision to go ahead with holding public meetings and rallies to maintain pressure may cause few problems, once talks on ToRs begin. The government team may suggest that till the outcome of talks, both sides should avoid attacking each other in public, indicating a ceasefire.

The "Motorway talk”, between Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid and Imran's most trusted Naimul Haq could be a step in the same direction. He had already briefed Imran Khan about it and the minister too has informed the PM about it.

To some extent it worked as Imran Khan, on the very next day, though criticised Sharif's policies, he made it clear that he had not demanded his resignation.

But, in this astonishing heat with temperature touching 50 degree and political temperature also matching it, can Pervaiz Rashid and Naimul Haq be able to control the T-20 political players like Daniyal Aziz, Talal Chauhdry, Abid Sher Ali, Zaeem Qadri or middle order batsmen like Ch Nisar Ali Khan, Khwaja Asif and Khwaja Sa’ad Rafiq, on the one hand and Murad Saeed, Shaukat Yousafzai, Fayyaz Ali Chohan, Andleeb Abbas, Ali Zaidi, Naz Baloch and middle order batsmen, Imran Ismail, Hamid Khan or Shahryar Afridi and Ali Mahmood.

The Captain knows it would not be easy to go ‘solo’ again, which could only be possible if talks fail or the PPP ditch him. Cracks have already appeared in the joint opposition, despite return of MQM.

Imran Khan knows that the joint opposition had tied his hands and if nothing else he had to wait till the outcome of the government-opposition talks on the ToRs. And if a judicial commission is constituted in accordance with the agreement, he would have no other option but to wait for the outcome of the investigation.

Within the opposition, some parties believe that Imran Khan has already taken a ‘solo flight’ and he only wants other opposition parties to join his campaign.

The ANP, which is PTI's main rival along with JUI-F in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and part of joint opposition, has already raised the finger at PTI leaders’ off shore companies. Earlier, the MQM also parted ways with the opposition on the same ground.

The government, on the other hand, had started "ice-breaking" efforts with the PPP. The visit of PM Nawaz Sharif, along with his wife, Mrs Kulsoom Nawaz, to the residence of former prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani only days after Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz visited him, were not just to celebrate the release of Ali Haider Gilani. Had it only been for the purpose, they would have also visited Shahbaz Taseer after his release.

What a turnaround? The man against whom Sharif wore a black court and went to the Supreme Court, made him visit him home in Multan. As they always say “in politics, only interest are permanent, not friends or enemies”.

Sources said the government might also review the decision to withdraw the name of Gilani and another former premier Raja Pervez Ashraf from the Exit Control List (ECL).

“I doubt Imran Khan would wait for the outcome beyond July. He is in haste and at least wants a commission to be set up before Eid, and the time limit should not exceed 90 days.”

Imran's kitchen cabinet is not on one page when it comes to ‘solo flight’ option. He has succeeded in making a ceasefire between two of his senior leaders – Jehangir Tareen and Shah Mehmood Qureshi, he has managed to control differences which had widened in Punjab, KP and also in Karachi. He knows success of such flight depended on his team.

As I mentioned above, election in Azad Kashmir is crucial, not only for Imran Khan but also for the PML-N and the PPP. PTI's victory in these polls could have far-reaching impact but it would not only be a setback for the PML-N but also for an ally of the joint opposition, the PPP.

While Imran Khan is in an aggressive mood and he did not want to miss this opportunity, PM Nawaz Sharif is also in a tit-for-tat mood in KP for which he has developed new political partnership with Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Asfandyar Wali and may be with the PPP too.

Fazlur Rehman is playing a role of Nawaz Sharif’ opening batsman and is trying to exploit the "Jew card" against Imran Khan. The Maulana may also try to meet him and use the issue in his conservative constituency of KP.

So, one may see a new round of confrontational politics, which could be decisive for both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif. But its outcome would depend on the findings of a judicial commission. If it finds Nawaz Sharif guilty, it may bring an end to his decades old hold on the Punjab politics. If he is cleared, it may not only lead to a serious jolt to Imran Khan’s chances of winning the next elections but also weaken the chances the growth of an alternative leadership in the country.

The game is on with Ramadan round the corner: the month of political ceasefire; and political ‘Iftaris’ may keep the issue alive till Eid.  The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang