Prospects of an anti-Nawaz movement

Prospect of success of an anti-Nawaz mass movement over Panama Papers looked bleak at the moment in the backdrop of the problems persist in the opposition ranks. While Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces a credibility crisis after the name of his children appeared in the leaks, all is not well on the other side either. If you talk of one man, who has the highest stake in this movement, it is Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan.

As we all await Panama part-II, scheduled to be released May 9, the ‘neutral umpires’ apparently have decided to stay away and not to supervise the match, unless situation goes out of control.

The chances of success of the campaign depend on how both sides i.e. the government and the opposition play their cards. But, keeping in view today’s situation, things do not looked very bright for the joint opposition. However, a few more mistakes on the part of the government could change the situation in favour of the opposition.

If one looks at the opposition camp, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), appear to be the three major parties with mass appeal, while the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) has organisational capabilities.

But, here arises a question: are they all on one page, something essential for any mass agitation? There is an element of mistrust which exists among them, within ranks of each party and against each other, too.

The opposition battleground, once against, would be the Punjab. Imran Khan knows that well and he has taken a big risk at a time when his party is facing one of the worst organisational problems and that too in the province where the battle would be fought. The government hardly has to do anything when Khan’s frontline leaders are allegedly conspiring against each other.

Beside the incidents of women abuse in the PTI rallies and meetings, the crisis within has forced Khan to shift the next two rallies outside Punjab. It’s so unfortunate that we are also doing politics over women abuse. The PML-N is looking for the PTI men responsible for the incident, while the PTI blamed police and the ruling party for the inhuman act. We always looked obscenity from women's perspective and have hardly talked about ‘men's vulgarity’.

Khan’s problems were multiplied after the names of his two closest aides, Jehangir Tareen's children and Aleem Khan, also appeared in the leak, in one way or the other. At the same time, they are the ones who are also facing problems within the party and their opponents exploited the situation. If they can fight on holding party's own public meetings, how would they come on one page when the time for more aggressive campaign arrives?

Imran Khan cannot afford another political defeat after 2014 fiasco, as in the post-judicial commission inquiry of 2013 election rigging, the PTI lost major by-elections, and cantonment and local government elections. So, if Khan loses both solo flight and joint flight, its impact would appear in the 2018 elections.

So, Khan has the highest stake in the movement and he will do anything to ensure Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is dislodged at all cost before 2018, failing which his party's crisis will further deepen and he may put himself in a ‘no win’ situation.

Jamaat-e-Islami's stakes are linked with the PTI, and if Khan fails here, the JI would be a big loser particularly at a time when they are already down, as they did not get massive response to its Anti-Corruption Campaign. It has stayed away in the last four by-elections in Karachi.

Imran is also the last hope for Sheikh Rashid, as his political survival had also been linked with Khan's success. A veteran of many political movements, the politician of Lal Haveli, knows "pros and cons" of this movement too, which has yet to pick up. He also knows that if Sharifs survive this crisis, it’s all over for the opposition unless something dramatic happens.

Now, where does PPP stand? Politically speaking, the party does not mind even if the PTI-led movement fails and it weaken the PTI and Imran Khan. At the same time, if the PML-N government becomes weaker or falls, PPP can improve its position. It has already taken the lead role in the movement with three acceptable faces for all, Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, Syed Khursheed Shah and Qamarzaman Kaira, along with former PPP and now PTI leader, Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

PPP may not support any move for resignations en bloc or dissolution of assemblies, as it does not suit them in Sindh, where any interim setup can further increase its problems, linked to cases of corruption, money-laundering and terror-financing.

The MQM, already in hot water with hundreds of its workers in custody, and internal organisational problems persisting, may also find it difficult to join mass movement unless it gets an “assurance”. Can all the opposition parties including the PPP and the PTI support the MQM demands? They have not even condemned death of its leader, Dr Farooq Sattar's coordinator, Aftab Ahmad.

Like the PPP, Awami National Party (ANP) and Qaumi Watan Party, too would not like to see the PTI or the JI getting stronger, particularly in the context of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where the ANP suffered the most in 2013 elections at the hands of the PTI and the JI.

In this context, the decision of JUI-F’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman is more matured as in future it can form an electoral alliance with the PML-N. His constant attack on the opposition particularly on Imran Khan is politically understandable as he did not want the PTI to gain in the KP.

Thus, what we saw in Bannu clearly reflected emergence of the future alliance in KP and Maulana's strategy had also blocked future alliance of religious parties against Nawaz Sharif. He also got political benefit as the government had practically dropped Women Protection Bill and it would now get mild. When the governments get weaker, they often come under pressure from their allies, whose bargain position also increases.

The opposition can create a big constitutional and political crisis if it decides to quit parliament, provincial assemblies including Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where they have their own governments. The PTI and the JI are undecided about the KP, and the PPP in Sindh.

Therefore, the battle would remain confined to Punjab, where the PPP had lost roots, JI had not much vote left while the PTI facing internal crisis. The only advantage Imran Khan has at present is the fact that he is still a big crowd-puller, which is important but can't lead to mass agitation in all four provinces.

Therefore, all eyes now are on the response from the chief justice of Pakistan (CJP) to the government's ToRs. The opposition also looks towards the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) for something like 2007 lawyers’ movement. But, it would not be easy for the SCBA, either to take the lead and they could only take certain principled stand but can't go for street movement.

How the opposition parties can build pressure unless their own leaders clear their names from Panama Papers, and secure a strong moral ground to force the premier to step down. So, it would be interesting to see whether the opposition offered Jehangir Tareen, Aleem Khan, Rehman Malik and Saifullah probe along with PM Nawaz Sharif on the agreed upon ToRs.

The government can come under pressure if the SC refuses to involve itself in a controversy. But, it can blame the opposition for making the CJP controversial. On the other hand, the opposition can also put the responsibility of the present crisis on the government because the name of PM's sons and daughter is there in the Panama leaks.

The umpire can raise the finger or refer the matter to the ‘third umpire’ if a strong appeal is made. So, we should all wait for the match, which is yet to start. But sides are making full preparations. At present, both the government and the opposition looked firm on their positions and showed little sign of flexibility except for their readiness for holding talks.

Thus, the prospect of mass agitation is not very bright but that does not mean the crisis is over for the Sharifs. This is the best time for the government to engage the opposition and look for way forward while the opposition needs to forge unity in its ranks before launching any movement.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang