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President and crisis analysis
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Dr Farrukh Saleem
President Zardari has kept every promise that he intended to keep. Now, the president is in a state of crisis. And, a formal, structured crisis analysis is more science than art. George Mason University teaches crisis analysis in its Institute of Conflict Analysis & Resolution and Wayne State University does the same through its Centre for Peace & Conflict Studies.
President Zardari's state has all the five defining characteristics of a crisis. One, it is 'specific'. Two, it is 'unexpected'. Three, it is 'non-routine'. Four, it has created 'uncertainty'. Five, it is a threat to President Zardari's goals.
The Free Dictionary by Farlex defines crisis as "an unstable condition… involving an impending abrupt or decisive change" or a "crucial, decisive point or situation; a turning point." Crisis analysts insist that "crisis is a process of transformation where the old system can no longer be maintained."
Generally, a crisis moves through three general phases, namely dispute, conflict and hostilities. President Zardari presides over three types of authorities -- constitutional, political and moral. Clearly, President Zardari's crisis has moved from dispute to conflict and may or may not enter the hostilities phase.
Within every crisis are status-quo and non-status quo forces. Status quo is "the existing state of affairs" or "the situation as it currently exists." President Zardari is leading the status-quo forces while the establishment is assembling a whole host of non-status-quo forces -- forces that want to change the situation as it currently exists.
Crisis resolution is also more science than art. Crisis resolution requires an adequate understating of disputes along with the nature of the crisis. President Zardari's dispute with non-status-quo forces revolves around the president's constitutional powers and his rather peculiar -- cronyism, nepotism and patronage -- model of governance.
Crisis can be of three types; internal, primarily internal with a significant external dimension and external. President Zardari's crisis falls into the second category -- primarily internal with a significant external (read: America) dimension. The principal failure is that of governance and that is all internal. The external dimension is an enabler to the crisis and not a structural driver.
President Zardari's political authority is firmly intact, his constitutional authority is under attack and he never had any moral authority. Status quo forces, led by President Zardari, have two things going for them; Article 248 (presidential immunity from criminal proceedings) and Article 47 (presidential impeachment requiring joint sitting and votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership).
On the other hand, non-status quo forces, led by the establishment, have several things going for them, including President Zardari's personal unpopularity, an absolute lack of governance, cronyism, nepotism and a high incidence of patronage. There is some evidence that America may have also been recruited by Pakistan's non-status-quo forces.
For President Zardari, crisis resolution ought to start at SWOT analysis -- an analysis of his strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. His strength is his party, number of seats in the two houses and the control of those houses. His weaknesses are personal as well as collective plus a whole host of his apolitical advisers. The pool of his opportunities is shrinking while the matrix of his threats is ballooning.
For President Zardari, crisis resolution would mean a total and an absolute focus on the internal dimension of the crisis (read: governance). An almost exclusive reliance on an external actor (read: America) can save neither the president nor his all-powerful presidency. Sir, 'To err is natural; to rectify error is glory.'
Crises try men's souls and no easy problems ever come to President Zardari because all the easy ones are solved by others. A crisis, it is said, is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh 15@hotmail.com
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ISSN 1563-9479 
