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| The PPP's last hope |
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Gibran Peshimam
The current political situation is troubling. It is troubling not only because the democratically-elected government entrusted with spearheading the era of democracy has made a total hash of it, but because the Pakistan People's Party – Pakistan's only real national party – is on the verge of flat-lining – quite possibly permanently.
The current state of the PPP is particularly disheartening, not only for the pro-PPP electorate but for pro-democracy forces, because the PPP, like it or not, is the only true Pakistan-wide party. Its complete collapse, or splintering, will only drown Pakistan further into the morass of factious democracy; the sort of appeasement-based coalition politics that has rendered impotent any attempt to showcase representative systems as a viable option to run the country.
Both the PPP and democracy are at a crossroads today. The problems they face are not the same as those our two main political parties faced in the past and have recovered (but never learnt) from before.
What the PPP has gone through in a period of two years is potentially terminal, because, for one, traditionally Pakistan's two main political parties have come out of self-inflicted adversity through the personality-based politics of their respective heads – Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. This is where the problem lies. The PPP's current personality is Asif Ali Zardari.
Not many people get a chance at redemption, but Zardari did. He got a chance under circumstances so powerful that no past record would have mattered – a testament to the towering political personality of his late wife. However, once in, he said the right things, but made all the wrong moves. He managed great political mileage by removing a vilified president, but lost it all by replacing him with wrong persons. He surrounded himself with the sort of people who have ensured that his past always remained in everyone's mind; ensured that he would always be seen as the prodigal husband and not a legitimate successor.
He did a lot to make the party his; he didn't do enough to make himself the party's.
Unfortunately for him, unlike Benazir and Nawaz, Zardari does not have the political stature to stage a comeback from here. With his past record – whether true or otherwise – there is little chance he will escape this imbroglio with any sort of political future. This could be it for him. It doesn't matter whether he gets rid of his powers and returns them to the Parliament. He'll get as much credit now as he did for restoring the chief justice. He has lost support from much of the party and the traditional vote bank.
However, the PPP's current state, and their imminent future death, contrary to popular belief, has not come to be only because of the president and his demonised "coterie," but because of the PPP's own devout "purists." These are the party members that stood by while "outsiders" invaded their party after the death of Benazir Bhutto and then ran havoc with the country's institutions.
The devouts may have mumbled their disapproval – and may still. They grumbled that they were sidelined and not consulted – and may still. But that's just the problem; they mumbled and grumbled. They did not take a public stand; the sort that would have created a leader in the gloomy aftermath of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto without an heir apparent.
If the PPP and democracy lost a leader in Benazir, then her death had created the opportunity for a non-family scion leader to emerge. The few "stands" were by weaker political figures. The sort you would expect to go with the flow, rather than pull their weight. And that makes the spinelessness of the PPP's old guard even more shameful.
The catch-22 is that, while with him the PPP will have to deal with a tremendous amount of baggage, particularly in a post-NRO Pakistan, the party will suffer even without Zardari because there is no central leader currently in its ranks,.
Suppose they do implement the minus-one formula, minus-5 one, or minus-12; even if Zardari walks away himself. Who will come to the fore?
Amin Fahim? He had his chance, and he has blown it by accepting an inconsequential ministry at a time where he was being put up as a potential alternative to Zardari. Now he is just another kowtower.
Yousuf Raza Gilani hardly constitutes a leader in the true meaning. He is a well-meaning pacifier. A mediator.
Fehmida Mirza? Raja Pervez Ashraf? Shah Mehmood Quershi? Qaim Ali Shah? Nisar Khuhro? Please.
Those thinking Bilawal, consider that by the time he comes around, it may be too late for a broken and splintered PPP. In any case, Bilawal will have a difficult time decoupling himself from his father – thanks in particular to a recent land scam that involved his name.
For now, there is one way out – an option that I had written of on these pages even before Benazir returned. Before she was assassinated and left the party leaderless. That option is Aitzaz Ahsan – the man Zardari's PPP later surprisingly shunned from its ranks – possibly out of fear of his popularity.
Big mistake.
The president may have realised this already, given that he recently held a meeting with the man he showed the door to. Ahsan is the only national level figure in the country at the moment who has the respect of the judiciary, civil society as well as the media, and who also has a rapport with the Army. He didn't join another party even after being thrown out – despite plenty of offers. So he qualifies as a PPP man, not an outsider.
He may be the PPP's last hope. But bringing him back on board will be difficult, particularly with Zardari still around: for one, Aitzaz is no Gilani, so there will have to be a true transfer of power – which the co-chairman is probably not willing to do. If this is so, the party members need to step in and make up for their hitherto timid behaviour.
Two years on, "Prime Minister Aitzaz Ahsan [still] has a nice ring to it."
For salvation, there needs to be sacrifice.
Hallelujah.
The writer is city editor, The News, Karachi. Email: gibran.peshimam@ gmail.com
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