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| Oil price hits year high, metals rally |
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
LONDON: Crude oil prices hit a one-year high of $82 and metals rallied this week as the US currency struck a 14-month low against the euro as investors took on greater risk amid signs of recovery, traders said.
Among the soft commodities, cocoa prices struck 24-year highs on prospects of a poor crop in leading producer Ivory Coast. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said a weak dollar “precipitated some buying in the commodities market, not only in oil.”
The European single currency jumped above $1.50 on Wednesday for the first time since August, 2008, as investors looked beyond the safe-haven US unit whose super-low interest rates are no longer attractive as recovery takes hold. The dollar is weakening as buoyant global equities persuade investors to pull their cash out of the US unit and into assets that are deemed a riskier bet, such as the euro, but which also offer higher returns.
This week, a raft of positive US company results helped propel global stock markets even higher, sparking hopes of a speedy global economic recovery. Those hopes were dashed slightly on Friday as official data showed Britain had failed to exit recession in the third quarter, confounding expectations.
OIL: Oil prices rallied this week, with New York crude hitting a one-year high of $82, driven by a weak dollar and optimism over the global economic recovery, analysts said. New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December touched $82 a barrel on Wednesday, a level last seen on October 14, 2008. The falling dollar makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for buyers holding stronger currencies, and therefore tends to stimulate crude demand and eventually prices.
OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said in London on Thursday that the cartel would consider ramping up crude oil production at its next meeting in December should economic growth improve and other conditions be met.
The cartel “will not hesitate to increase its production in December,” he told reporters, adding the decision was dependent also on higher oil prices and no floating storage of crude. The 12-nation Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose members pump 40 per cent of the world’s crude oil, will hold their next meeting in Luanda, Angola, on December 22.
Oil prices tumbled from historic highs of more than $147 in July 2008 to about $32 in December because of the global recession but have since risen on hopes of recovery. By Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), light sweet crude for delivery in November rose to $80.48 compared with $77.32 for the expired November contract a week earlier. On London’s InterContinental Exchange (ICE), Brent North Sea crude for December delivery climbed to $78.91 from $75.93 a week earlier.
PRECIOUS METALS: The price of gold rose but failed to beat its recent record high of $1,070.80 an ounce. Gold hit an all-time high the previous week as the dollar weakened before falling on profit-taking. Platinum and palladium reached their highest levels in more than a year. “Precious metals are gaining more than their fair share of investment at the moment,” said UBS analyst John Reade.
“Dollar weakness has been a major driver of commodities and historically precious metals have had the best correlation of returns to a falling dollar.” By late Friday on the London Bullion Market, gold climbed to $1,061.75 an ounce from $1,047.50 a week earlier.
Silver gained to $17.65 an ounce from $17.31. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum advanced to $1,372 an ounce at the late fixing on Friday from $1,346. Palladium firmed to $338 an ounce from $326.
BASE METALS: Base metals prices rose, with copper hitting a 13-month high of $6,714 as traders tracked the performance of the weakening dollar. “It is becoming almost imperative to trade metals from the perspective of the dollar these days as nothing else seems to count for very much,” said MF Global analyst Ed Meir. “This was best illustrated by the action in the markets on Wednesday, where metals reversed course to finish sharply higher once the dollar crashed” against the euro. By Friday on the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months jumped to $6,702 a ton from $6,200 a week earlier.
Three-month aluminium gained to $1,990 a ton from $1,915. Three-month lead increased to $2,438 a ton from $2,197. Three-month tin climbed to $15,300 a ton from $14,400. Three-month zinc advanced to $2,283 a ton from $2,040. Three-month nickel rallied to $19,530 a ton from $18,626.
COCOA: Cocoa prices struck a 24-year high of 2,193 pounds a ton. “Structural decline in the Ivorian crop and lack of investment have been key springboards for the rally in prices,” said analysts at Barclays Capital. By Friday on LIFFE, London’s futures exchange, the price of cocoa for delivery in December rose to 2,184 pounds a ton from 2,119 pounds a week earlier. On the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT), the December cocoa contract climbed to $3,395 a ton from $3,278.
SUGAR: Sugar fell after recently striking 28-year highs due to tight supplies. By Friday on LIFFE, the price of a ton of white sugar for delivery in March dropped to 595 pounds from 605.90 pounds a week earlier. On NYBOT, the price of unrefined sugar for March retreated to 23.02 US cents a pound from 23.11 cents.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Prices extended gains made the previous week, helped in part by freezing weather in key producer the United States that threatens to cut supplies. By Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade, maize for delivery in December jumped to $4.11 a bushel from $3.72 a week earlier. January-dated soyabean meal, used in animal feed, increased to $10.25 from $9.82. Wheat for December rose to $5.72 a bushel from $4.98.
COFFEE: Coffee futures dropped. By Friday on LIFFE, Robusta for delivery in January slid to $1,427 a ton from $1,501 a week earlier. On the NYBOT, Arabica for December fell to 137 US cents a pound from 138.60 cents.
RUBBER: Malaysian rubber prices rose on speculative buying interest amid a weak stock situation caused by unfavourable weather conditions in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s top three producing countries. By Friday, the Malaysian Rubber Board’s benchmark SMR20 climbed to 232.90 cents a kilogramme from 228.95 cents the previous week.
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