 |
| |
WEEKLY
SECTIONS |
 |
|
 |
| Still in business |
|
|
|
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Anybody who thought that the Taliban were close to defeat or on the run had better think again. Saturday saw attacks on Peshawar and Bannu. At the time of writing five people are reported dead and fifty injured when a police station was destroyed in Bannu. In the heart of Peshawar, in an area normally regarded as well-guarded and secure, a car bomb containing an estimated 100kg of explosives was detonated killing at least 10 and injuring 70 – both figures are likely to rise. The TTP has claimed responsibility for the Bannu blast, but nobody as yet owns the Peshawar bomb. Both atrocities need to be seen in the context of a statement issued by Qari Hussain Mehsud, a Taliban commander in North Waziristan who said to an AP reporter last Friday that their movement had gained more strength after Baitullah Mehsud and that a group of suicide bombers would be activated if the army launched another offensive against the Taliban.
With the army appearing to be girding its loins for an operation in the Waziristans we cannot afford to take this threat lightly. A new generation of Taliban commanders is emerging to replace those lost in the ups and downs of warfare. They are experiencing no problems of recruitment and retention and although the cinemas may have opened in Mingora we would caution against an outbreak of jubilation, because the quasi-peace we have achieved at considerable cost in terms of lives and treasure is far from durable. Opening another front in the Waziristans is going to generate another wave of IDPs; perhaps not as large as that which flowed out of the Swat valley but large enough to strain the resources of the NWFP administration. It is also going to stretch the resources of an army that has fought long and hard for almost five months and is now being asked to fight again – this time probably for longer and certainly harder. Across the border in Afghanistan a bigger war is being fought between the Taliban and the Americans and other coalition forces. It is a war that NATO and the Americans can, by their own recent admission – lose. If NATO pulls out not having won, with a de-facto victory going to the Haqqani-led Afghan Taliban which have not yet joined forces with the Pakistani Taliban; then a dark scenario gets darker. This is not table-top theorizing or armchair general-ing, this is a detached analysis informed by on-the-ground commanders who know what they are talking about – and have a keen awareness of the strength of the enemy they face. Any celebration of peace is decidedly premature.
|
|
|
| Back
| Send
this story to Friend | Print
Version |
|
|
|
ISSN 1563-9479 
