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WEEKLY
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| Political suicide |
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Monday, May 12, 2008
As dramatic rounds of high level negotiations continue in London between the government coalition leaders, several ideas and proposals are being floated as alternates to a straightforward restoration of the deposed judges. These, according to two separate reports in this newspaper in recent days, include a possible dissolution of the National Assembly or a bifurcation of the Supreme Court to accommodate both the pre- and post-Nov. 3 judges. To most observers these may indicate ominous portents for the future, with both parties, deep down in their hearts, perhaps not having too much in the way of hope for salvaging the Murree Accord or even of keeping the coalition intact.
Both Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, however, keep shaking hands vigorously before TV cameras, pledging endlessly to sustain their romance for ever, but as soon they close the doors of their negotiating rooms bitterness and gloom takes over and mistrust and doubts are expressed, stated positions are repeated and nothing seems to move forward. It appears that Mr Zardari believes that the permanent establishment of Pakistan is not neutral but sharply divided into pro-Musharraf and pro-Nawaz factions, despite claims to the contrary by spokesmen of institutions. As the Musharraf camp had offered Mr Zardari, and before him Benazir Bhutto, numerous concessions and reliefs, the PPP leader is tagging along with the pro-Musharraf side. This obviously means he has to accept a number of preconditions, especially on the president continuing in office, retention of the judiciary put in place by him and diluting the impact of the strong pro-judiciary movement led by the lawyers, media, civil society and certain sections of the political spectrum.
The pro-Nawaz establishment includes among others, his Saudi Arabian backers who practically forced his return perhaps to offset the return of Ms Bhutto. The ethnic Punjabi factor may also have played its part in pushing sections of the civil and military establishment into accepting Mr Sharif back into the national fold as his exclusion was already creating a distorted image of the army led by Musharraf. Thus the differences on the judges’ issue between PPP and PML-N have much deeper roots, or so the PPP leader appears to believe. For him it may not be such a simple prospect to return the deposed judges to their bench through an executive order or any other mode of action which may anger Musharraf. Information Minister Sherry Rehman has already said that such an act will create a constitutional crisis and it would be fair to assume that the minister is echoing the thoughts of her party co-chairman.
It is true that the PPP had benefited immensely in recent month, in fact in such rapid succession that one could not miss the desperation in the Musharraf camp. The logic was that if the PPP was to be enticed to become an ally of Musharraf, all the wrongs of the past many years had to be wiped clean - sooner than later. But this was a desperate need of President Musharraf and not the PPP, as a clear election victory had already cleansed the party leadership’s tainted image. Ms Bhutto’s tragic assassination further endeared the party to the masses and once the grand coalition was formed, there should have been no need for the party’s leadership to look up to the president’s camp for obtaining power - since it already had this in its grasp. Had Ms Bhutto been in this position, she probably would have parted ways with the president by then but somehow Mr Zardari has not been able to do what the moment expected of him. So much momentum had been gained by the political coalition that the judges were released even before the prime minister could legally issue the order. All that the prime minister had to do was to express his intention in the National Assembly to release them and the establishment that till then had detained them yielded.
But now the political momentum is, one dares say, being lost as rapidly as it was gained. The power of the coalition has already been diluted by the PPP by refusing to quickly solve the issue. The Musharraf camp is back in business and the president seems to be in high spirits with making efforts to revive the PML-Q by ditching the Chaudhrys of Gujrat. This should raise all kinds of red flags and sound alarms bells in the coalition but the judges issue is dragging everyone down. Statements, or even a vague mention of abandoning the political process by seeking a dissolution of the National Assembly, as indicated in some reports, could only mean political suicide for many of the major parties, foremost among them the PPP. The PML-N may survive as it would be perceptibly going down fighting for a principled stand on the judges issue but the PPP would be the biggest loser. If parliament were to be dissolved and new elections called, what issues would the PPP fight on? The sympathy wave that enabled the party to win handsomely after Ms Bhutto’s death will no longer be there and the party could lose heavily because of its dilly-dallying on the judges issue and perceived support and/or defence of the president and his policies. The only course of survival for PPP and its allies is to resolve the judges issue quickly so that it can get down to the business of governing the country and tackling its numerous problems.
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ISSN 1563-9479 
