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Thursday March 28, 2024

Do or die clash between PML-N, PTI today

Wednesday’s grand electoral clash has become a “do or die” fight basically between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

By Tariq Butt
July 25, 2018

ISLAMABAD: Wednesday’s grand electoral clash has become a “do or die” fight basically between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

Other key actors like Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM) and its breakaway factions, and independents particularly the Jeep group will also make significant gains to subsequently play a critical role in government making. Never before will such smaller forces enjoy the importance they will have this time amid widespread apprehensions of emergence of a split mandate.

Among them, the most potent force is the PPP, which is going to secure the third position in terms of federal seats after the PML-N and PTI. But despite this placing, it will be a foremost player in government making at the central level.

For PTI Chairman Imran Khan, it is a now or never situation because of comfortable and favourable environment for him. For PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif, who is facing heavy odds, it is no different picture.

A universal perception and opinion, highlighted by all and sundry, the close watchers of the electoral scene, is that it will be an tight fight, touch and go situation and no party is likely to have a walkover. It is also generally believed that a coalition government will come in place as no principal party will be in a position to independently form government.

Going by the assertions of the PML-N and PTI, Shahbaz Sharif and Imran Khan are equally confident to make it to the top executive office. A question that has been frequently debated is whether or not the PTI is now more popular than it was in 2013. This factor aside, it is a hard fact that Imran Khan has many “electables” with some of them being potential winners. This is a great edge over its archrival apart from support of other powerful circles.

What has not been publicly discussed much is as to which parties will form governments in provinces and everybody is more interested in talking about the future central setup. If supposing the PML-N gets the Punjab government, the PPP secures Sindh, the PTI, or MMA assisted by other parties like the PML-N, Awami National Party etc, presides over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), which party will cry hoarse, alleging manipulation having been done before or during the polling. In any case, Balochistan is going to be in the hands of powers like the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), which was abruptly created for a specific purpose of marginalising national parties in the province.

Several factors that came into play in the pre-poll period will have a clear impact on the final outcome of the elections. As a whole, the poll campaign was lackluster for a variety of reasons. Huge public rallies were generally missing.

The revival of the MMA enabled the alliance mainly between the Jamiate Ulemae Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami to put their votes in one basket. But on the other hand, the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) of Allama Khadim Rizvi and Allah-e-Akbar Tehreek (AAT), political arm of Jamaatud Dawa (JuD), which have fielded a large number of candidates, are poised to pocket the religious vote, which will not affect the MMA.

It is not known which party, the TLP and AAT will damage. However, they are unexpected to clinch any significant number of federal and provincial seats, but they may dent national parties to some extent and may have a dominant say where the margin of victory or defeat of candidates of major political parties will be small.

Another telling aspect is that even before a single vote has been cast, the elections have become highly controversial as all parties, irrespective of their weight and worth, except the PTI have dubbed the exercise dubious and divisive. Normally, the rigging mantra is chanted after the polls, but this time it is the opposite that has happened, which doesn’t augur well for the process.

Wednesday’s election is distinct and unique in another sense. Never in Pakistan’s history has such colossal deployment of troops been done in the last ten general elections. A total of 370,000 army personnel and an equal number of policemen and paramilitary troops will do the security duties across Pakistan. This has been done when all agree that the security situation has tremendously improved barring three devastating terrorist attacks during the campaign compared to the 2013 when terrorism was at its peak.

This is the second parliamentary election of his political life in which Nawaz Sharif is restrained to contest or even run the PML-N’s campaign. His party had contested the 2002 polls during Pervez Musharraf’s regime when the former prime minister was in exile in Saudi Arabia. Now, he is in Adiala Jail Rawalpindi where he landed on July 13 when he came back to Pakistan from London to court arrest after having been convicted by an accountability court. Thus, the PML-N, which strongly believes that his return to Pakistan and incarceration paid electoral dividends, was deprived of its aggressive campaigner. How far this factor will weigh on the minds of the voters will be clear on Wednesday. Conversely, his leading challenger Imran Khan has a free hand and has been on a hectic campaign trail, touring all parts of Pakistan without inhibition.

Plausible and implausible apprehensions about likely manipulation on the polling day, the Election Commission of Pakistan has a gigantic task on its shoulders to hold fair, free and transparent polls otherwise it will be the favourite punching bag of those raising accusing fingers at the impartiality of the exercise.