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29% decline in terrorist attacks in 2018: report

By Our Correspondent
January 07, 2019

ISLAMABAD: Despite a 29 per cent decline in terrorist attacks in 2018, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Daesh remained potent threats to Pakistan’s security.

The assessment makes part of the Pakistan Security Report 2018 released by Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS). The report says that Pakistani Taliban and its associated groups, which now includes ISIS’ local chapter, remains the most potent threat followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially in Balochistan.

“Two suicide attacks by a Baloch secessionist group in 2018 are alarming, but these should not forego attempts of reconciling them, which National Action Plan (NAP) clearly calls upon. Any attempt of mainstreaming banned outfits should be undertaken by a proper mechanism, so as not to be seen as excluding those already mainstreamed,” says the report.

These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2018, released by PIPS, an Islamabad-based think-tank specialising in security and conflict dynamics of Pakistan and the region. The organisation compiled its findings on the basis of its multi-source database, coupled with interviews and articles by subject experts.

The report tallied that militant, nationalist/insurgent and violent sectarian groups carried out, in all, 262 terrorist attacks in Pakistan during the year 2018 – including 19 suicide and gun-and-suicide coordinated attacks, killing 595 people, besides injuring 1,030. These attacks posted a 29 per cent decrease from the previous year.

Of these attacks, as many as 171 attacks were perpetrated by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), its splinter groups mainly Jamaatul Ahrar, Hizbul Ahrar and other militant groups with similar objectives such as local Taliban groups as well as ISIS, killing 449 people. Meanwhile, nationalist insurgent groups, mostly in Balochistan and a few in Sindh, carried out 80 attacks, killing 96 people. As many as 11 terrorist attacks were sectarian-related, killing 50 people and inflicted injuries on 45 others.

Significantly, more than half of these attacks, around 136, hit security and law-enforcement agencies. Meanwhile, security forces and law enforcement agencies killed a total of 120 militants in 2018 – compared to 524 in 2017 – in 31 military/security operations as well as 22 armed clashes and encounters with the militants reported from across 4 provinces.

The most ominous attacks were on political leaders and workers; in 24 attacks on them, 218 people were killed and 394 injured. The deadliest ones took place in the run-up to the polls.

The report also noted a total of 131 cross-border attacks from Pakistan’s borders with Afghanistan, India and Iran, claiming 111 lives and injuring 290 others.

Balochistan remains a centre of attention. With 354 people killed in the attacks, 59 per cent of the total toll in Pakistan took place in Balochistan. Pakistan’s border along Iran also saw some clashes, a few hinting at diplomatic blame game. Two attacks by Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) stand out for their modus operandi. In both, the group tried to kill the Chinese workers and diplomats.

Yet, the report warns, the violence from groups like TTP and ISIS should not be conflated with that of Baloch secessionists. While religiously-inspired groups carried less attacks in Balochistan, the death toll was far greater than the secessionists’. Even some of their suicide attacks, alarming indeed, got foiled in the initial stages. NAP’s point of reconciliation in Balochistan awaits implementation.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including erstwhile Fata agencies, faced the highest number of terrorist attacks compared to all other regions of Pakistan. A total of 125 reported attacks from the province claimed 196 lives and inflicted injuries on another 376 people.

It says that while NAP requires revision, the National Internal Security Policy 2018-2023 is much granular in assigning specific tasks to different government departments. It should be made part of public debate.

More importantly, in 2018, a consensus document which condemns violence in the name of religion was released. ”Paigham-i-Pakistan” is a unanimous declaration-cum-religious decree signed by 1,800 religious scholars across the country, and backed by the state. It is to be seen how the clergy responds to it, but endorsements by members of the banned outfits raise question whether they are still embraced.

The report says that, in 2018, the usual cat-and-mouse game continued between state authorities and banned outfits. One set of administrative measure aimed at banning them was followed by another of unbanning them: Several banned leaders who were barred from travelling out of district, under the fourth schedule category, not only organised street protests but forced the government to remove their names.

Others even tried to contest elections; when stopped, they changed the organisation’s names.

It says that apparently, Pakistan is struggling to convince the world by projecting its anti-militant actions and ensuing sacrifices. Such claims come under question every time there is a drone strike or some erstwhile leader hold a press conference or public demonstration. “The problem is compounded with the absence of any coherent policy of reintegrating and mainstreaming certain groups. As a result, attempts at mainstreaming them are seen as deliberate attempts to excluding those already mainstreamed. More so, unqualified mainstreaming has resulted in pushing the religious discourse to the extremes, with sectarian thinking becoming a new normal.”

PIPS report calls for removing any ambiguity to this end, and recommends that any process to this end should be inclusive, led by parliament, which should lay down a criteria to the pre-conditions of mainstreaming such groups. This will greatly help the government too which has to navigate through several challenges.

The report also calls for empowering civilian-led law-enforcement apparatus. It was in this spirit that the role of Nacta has been critical, a focal body of relevant intelligence feeds. Instead of empowering this body under the direct chairpersonship of the prime minister, proposals have been floating in 2018 to either abolish Nacta completely or undo its backbone, Joint Intelligence Directorate. PIPS report calls for revisiting such thoughts.