The Paris Conference of Parties (COP) – known as COP21 – to be held under the auspices of the United Nations is scheduled to begin tomorrow (on November 30) in Paris and will last till December 11. This landmark event is a watershed in the world’s likely pivot towards policies that keep the planet’s average temperature from exceeding the 2 degrees Celsius threshold that the scientific consensus deems the cut-off level beyond which climate change catastrophe looms. Average temperatures higher than the 2° C level spell disaster for the majority of the world’s population, especially those living in or along low-lying coastal areas and the arid and semi-arid regions of the world. This is because the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will lead to a change in the Earth’s ecosystem with devastating consequences – including rising ocean levels, more violent storms, ocean acidification, frequent and intense droughts and floods, food scarcities due to parching of farmlands, intense heat waves and tornados, destruction of natural habitats, heat related disease transmission and, not least, water shortages. It would also lead to massive displacement of human beings – the climate refugees – and will result in a governance nightmare for governments worldwide as entire societies unravel. The dystopian future forecast by biologist Paul Ehrlich in his book ‘The Population Bomb’ – published in the late 1960s – of developing countries being ravaged by large-scale famines associated with overpopulation may still come to pass if the international community does not seize the moment for course correction on climate change. Around 190 statesmen and opinion leaders including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif are expected to address the Paris climate conference and it is widely anticipated that countries will, inter alia, seek to negotiate the creation of a climate finance fund. The hope is that carbon emissions – currently at 400 parts per million (ppm) by volume and rising annually at around 2 ppm – are stabilised at between 450 and 560 ppm. The UN’s official goal is to keep carbon emissions below 450 ppm but at the current rate of emissions this ceiling is expected to be easily breached by 2050 if not earlier. The European Union has already pledged to cut its carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared to the 1990 level while the US, the world’s largest per capita emitter, has announced that it will reduce its emissions by 26 percent to 28 percent by 2030 compared to 2005. China, the largest emitter of GHGs currently, has announced that its emissions will peak by 2030. Nations collectively responsible for 90 percent of the world’s emissions have been asked to present their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) prior to the start of the Paris Conference. The UN’s analysis of the INDCs submitted so far indicate that the commitments made are not enough to avert the climate threat, and more stringent reductions need to be made. But the positive aspect is that the world community has made a start, albeit a late one, to deal with the problem although the question of whether the emission reduction commitments should or will be made legally binding through treaties has been sidestepped. As is well known, Pakistan is a country that will be seriously at risk as a result of rising global temperatures. We have already had a foretaste of what to expect with the recurrence of floods in recent years that have displaced millions of people from their homes and the heatwave in June 2015 that enveloped Sindh resulting in the loss of more than 2000 lives. By all accounts ours is a highly vulnerable country and mitigation and adaptation strategies based on best practices have to be adopted. Initial steps to address the issue were taken in this direction (under the previous PPP-led government) culminating in the approval by the federal government of the ‘National Climate Change Policy’ in 2012 and its official launch by the Ministry of Climate Change in February 2013. The present government in Islamabad seems to have adopted a ‘not invented here’ attitude, with the result that one of the key recommendations of the Climate Change Policy – that the federal government along with the provincial governments develop an ‘Action Plan’ for its implementation – appears to have been completely neglected. The result of the lack of preparation on a matter of such vital importance is reflected in the woeful one-page document of Pakistan’s INDC that our government has submitted to the Paris moot. Written in typical bureaucratese, it lacks any depth either in data or in scientific analysis. The lack of substance in Pakistan’s INDC becomes glaringly obvious when one reads the INDCs submitted by Bangladesh and India. These two countries have provided a comprehensive and detailed analysis of what has been achieved in the fields of mitigation in their respective countries and what their emission reduction targets are. For instance, India proposes to “reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 percent by 2030 from 2005 level” while Bangladesh promises unconditionally “to reduce GHG emissions by 5% from Business as Usual (BAU) levels by 2030 in the power, transport and industry sectors, based on existing resources’ and “a conditional 15% reduction in GHG emissions from BAU levels by 2030 in the power, transport and industry sectors, subject to appropriate international support”. As Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to address the meeting in Paris one hopes his speech stays away from clichés and the embarrassment of admitting that, despite a climate change policy being in effect in the country, we still don’t know what our emissions are and that, per our submitted INDC, “the GHG emission projections along with possibility of economy wide mitigation and its abatement cost will be determined after the completion of this (data collection and analysis) exercise”. This begs the question: what has our Ministry of Climate Change been up to since its formation in 2012? The former Climate Change Minister Mushahidullah Khan did exude energy and it appeared that progress was being made under his watch but this should not excuse the subsequent malaise that has gripped the ministry leaving it directionless. One option could have been to hire outside consultants to prepare the INDC and submit it well before the deadline for submission (which we also failed to meet). The issue of climate change brings into relief a lack of interest in scientific endeavours within the ranks of our politicians. I would be surprised if there were more than a handful of parliamentarians that have an interest, let alone any qualification, in science and technology. Reporters and TV anchors in our media also suffer from a marked aversion to, and ignorance of, science. Programmes about politics are a television staple and, worse, so are programmes re-enacting crimes to attract viewers but how many times have we seen on television a serious discussion on global warming and its causes or on science in general such as an airing of Carl Sagan’s ‘Cosmos’ and its follow up by Neil deGrasse Tyson translated into Urdu for Pakistani viewers? We cannot and should not assume that there are no viewers for such programmes unlike, say , for gory crime story re-enactments with no redeeming social value other than perverse entertainment. There needs to be a change in this regard. A good start would be for the government to appoint an eminent scientist to head the Ministry of Climate Change. The writer is group director for business development at the Jang Group. Email: iqbal.hussain@janggroup.com.pk
