Will PTI’s public meeting today upset NA-122 by-polls?

ISLAMABAD: Will Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan’s show of public power in Lahore on Sunday enable him to cause an upset in the by-election to National Assembly constituency NA-122?
Many doubt he would for different reasons, one of them being the selection of Aleem Khan as his candidate. Another reason is the factionalism inflicting the Lahore chapter of the PTI. No prominent local party leader has been seen with the contestant campaigning in the urban constituency.
Through his vigorous and focused electioneering, Imran Khan is trying to make up the loss, if any, being done by the internal grouping. Despite his efforts, he has not been successful in bridging the differences between the two formidable factions.
While the PTI chief has taken upon his shoulders to spearhead the campaign, his rival, Sardar Ayaz Sadiq of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has to be content with the assistance of the second tier party leadership since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and their cabinet members are legally prohibited from taking part in the drive.
Being an MP, Imran Khan was also previously faced with this embargo, but it was dispensed with by the Lahore High Court (LHC) some time back, when it lifted the ban on the federal and provincial legislators to do canvassing.
However, while the Sharif brothers are restricted from campaigning and will not hold any election rally or lead a procession, they are meeting the notables and influential people from NA-122 constituency to muster support for Ayaz Sadiq.
The PTI’s Lahore public meeting is being held just a week before the polling on October 11. Originally, Imran Khan had planned to stage a sit-in in front of the offices of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on October 4 and had later announced to hold a public meeting at the same venue, but he changed his mind and shifted the show to Lahore some days back. He is undertaking a series of campaign activities in Lahore in the run-up to the polling. In the 2013 general elections, Ayaz Sadiq had won this seat by defeating Imran Khan and the same happened in the 2002 parliamentary polls. Had the PTI chief been in the contest, he would certainly have chances of a better performance than that of Aleem Khan. However, he chose to stay away from the competition saying that he would fight for the seat only if Nawaz Sharif comes in the field.
Although the outcome of the by-election will have no impact on the numerical scenario in the National Assembly, it will have an effect on the political landscape. For this reason, it is a do or die clash between the two.
In addition, the result will prove what impact, positive or negative, Imran Khan’s politics of protest and agitation that started in August 2014 has created for his party. However, the defeat of PTI candidates in successive by-polls over the past few months has established that the sit-in did not produce any dividends for the PTI.
Apart from the great importance of the by-election for the PTI and PML-N, it is also significant for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). It will taste the impact of his decision to end its “policy of reconciliation” that it has been trumpeting saying that this strategy has hugely damaged it.
In 2013, its candidate Barrister Mian Amir Hassan, who has again been fielded in the by-poll, could get only 2,833 votes as against Ayaz Sadiq’s 93,389 ballots and Imran Khan’s 84,517 votes. This had recorded the lowest ebb of the PPP in any elections.
PTI’s Shoaib Siddiqui, who had vied for the Punjab Assembly seat PP-147, had bagged 30,174 votes compared to 36,781 ballots of the winner, PML-N’s Mohsin Latif in 2013. Siddiqui has been sponsored by his party in the by-poll again.