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Thursday March 28, 2024

Post-Omar scenarios for Taliban

PESHAWAR: Despite denials by the Taliban, there are strong indications that their supreme leader Mulla Mohammad Omar died two years ago in Pakistan and was secretly buried in Afghanistan.There have been rumours and speculations about Mulla Omar’s death in the past as well, but the denials by the Taliban movement

By Rahimullah Yusufzai
July 31, 2015
PESHAWAR: Despite denials by the Taliban, there are strong indications that their supreme leader Mulla Mohammad Omar died two years ago in Pakistan and was secretly buried in Afghanistan.
There have been rumours and speculations about Mulla Omar’s death in the past as well, but the denials by the Taliban movement are less forceful this time and certain people in its ranks too are asking difficult questions regarding the absence of any proof of life to establish that he is alive.
Never before had the Taliban leadership been under so much pressure to provide evidence to its own rank and file and to the world that Mulla Omar isn’t dead.Sources claiming to be knowledgeable and close to Taliban maintained that Mulla Omar died on July 19, 2013 and his body was shifted to Afghanistan’s Zabul province and buried at a secret location.
The circumstances of his death are unclear, though a controversy has been triggered following the allegation by a Taliban splinter group, Fidayee Mahaz led by Mulla Najeebullah, who had been close to the late top ranking Taliban commander Mulla Dadullah Akhund, that Mulla Omar was assassinated on the orders of the deputy leader of Taliban movement, Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, and his ally Gul Agha, presently the head of the movement’s finance commission.
It is meaningful that Mulla Omar’s eldest son, Muhammad Yaqoob, has been describing his father as a martyr in meetings with his supporters at a time when a group of Taliban opposed to Mansoor is promoting him as the future leader of the movement.
A story making the rounds in Taliban circles says that Yaqoob, his uncle Abdul Mannan and other family members and clerics opened Mulla Omar’s grave to check his body to find out if it had bullet marks. According to this account, there were two bullet marks on the body in his chest and forehead. The fact that Mulla Omar’s family is harbouring doubts about the circumstances of his death has added a disturbing twist to the story and piled up the pressure on Mansoor and his camp to provide believable answers to the many questions being asked from him.
However, the other account is entirely different as it says that Mulla Omar died a natural death from complications arising from a heart attack that he had suffered some years ago. The two accounts are being publicised by the rival camps among Taliban and seem to contain an element of exaggeration.
The pro-Mansoor faction, presently in command of the Taliban movement, is arguing that Mansoor and Gul Agha could not even think of killing Mulla Omar, who enjoyed unparalleled popularity among the Taliban and was given the title ‘Amirul Momineen’ (Commander of the Faithful) at a big congregation of religious scholars and clerics in Kandahar. It termed this as propaganda to undermine Mansoor’s position and cause divisions in Taliban ranks.
The 26-year old Yaqoob reportedly told his supporters that he was advised to keep quiet about his father’s death as it would have demoralised the Taliban fighters battling US-led Nato forces and the Afghan government at a time when the Nato troops had started the drawdown from Afghanistan. He also argued that the news of Mulla Omar’s death two years ago could have triggered a power struggle in Taliban ranks and led to differences in the movement.
Though such a scenario was avoided at the time of Mulla Omar’s apparent death two years ago, this is happening right now when the news of his death is making the headlines all over the world.
If and when the Taliban confirm the news of Mulla Omar’s death, the next stage would clear the suspicions regarding the circumstances of his passing away and then choosing a new leader.
Three names are circulating as possible replacement for Mulla Omar. His deputy, Mansoor, who has been the de facto head of Taliban movement for the past two years, is a strong contender even though his personality has become controversial due to his role in the circumstances leading to Mulla Omar’s death and his decision to hold peace talks with the Afghan government by giving up the Taliban original stand that no such dialogue is possible until the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan. Mansoor is head of the Taliban Rahbari Shura (Leadership Council) and in control of resources and any other contender would have to beat him to become the new leader.
Yaqoob is a rising star in Taliban movement largely due to the commanding influence that Mulla Omar had among his followers. However, he wasn’t named by Mulla Omar as his successor and has no real fighting or administrative experience. He is young and untried but his supporters believe he would be acceptable to the Taliban rank and file.
Another name being mentioned is of Mulla Abdul Ghani Biradar, who was the deputy head of the Taliban movement before he was captured by Pakistani authorities and had to spend many years in custody. Pakistan released him along with about 40 other Afghan Taliban leaders in 2013-2014 on the request of President Hamid Karzai who wanted to hold peace talks with him. This didn’t happen as none of these Taliban leaders returned to Afghanistan or showed any interest in talking to Karzai.
On the demand of the US and the Afghan government, Biradar was kept under surveillance as they feared he would rejoin the Taliban leadership and fight against their forces. According to Taliban sources, Biradar is still in Pakistani custody. Biradar could be a compromised candidate in case there is disagreement on Mansoor and Yaqoob.
In the worst case scenario, the Taliban movement could face a split with Mansoor and Yaqoob heading rival factions. However, well-meaning Taliban elders are trying to resolve the differences to keep the movement intact and strong.