MQM stands to gain in trilateral fight

ISLAMABAD: Dogged refusal of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) to hammer out an agreement on jointly contesting the by-election to National Assembly constituency, NA-246 Azizabad Karachi, is comforting for the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).
The anti-MQM vote will split between the PTI and JI, the allies in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) ruling coalition, which will obviously benefit Altaf Hussain’s cardholder, Kanwar Navid Jamil. None of them is prepared to play second fiddle, but no one may be in a position single-handed to outnumber the MQM vote tally. The target of the both is the MQM and they have avoided to take on each other.
Once upon a time, the JI was a very powerful force in Karachi, but it faded, facing unprecedented weakening after the emergence of the MQM. By vying for the NA-246 seat, it did not want to shun its old claim and is poised to regain its lost glory.
The PTI was immensely buoyed up in the 2013 general elections in Karachi where it turned out to be the second party that secured the largest number of popular votes after the MQM although it got just a lone National Assembly seat and three Sindh Assembly seats. It now dreams to secure the first position in this by-election, believing that its sit-in politics added a lot to its appeal.
It was a totally one-sided affair of the MQM in the 2003 and 2008 general elections in this constituency. But a good fight ensued in 2002 polls. In 2013, MQM nominee Nabeel Gabol, who had switched to it abandoning the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), had bagged 137,874 votes while PTI candidate Amir Sharjeel had clinched second position with 31,875 ballots. JI contestant Rashid Nasim, who has also been fielded this time, stood third by gaining 10,321 votes. The turnout was 51.63 percent.
In 2008, there was no PTI or JI representative in the running. MQM’s Sufyan Yousuf had recorded a high number of votes, 186,933. The runner-up, Sohail Ansari of the PPP, had pocketed just 6,741 ballots. The turnout was 63.07 percent.
But it was a different story in the 2002 elections as far as the MQM contestant’s victory margin was concerned. Haji Azizullah of MQM had got 53,134 votes compared to 32,879 ballots of Rashid Nasim, who was then sponsored by the now-extinct Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The turnout was 37.4 percent.
Although the MQM faces a multitude of allegations including ballot stuffing and intimidation of voters in Karachi to win elections at all costs, it is considered a political giant in the mega city. Since the present constituency is considered an MQM bastion, it is a do or die situation for it. But it is under tremendous pressure after the recovery of hardened criminal elements and a convicted killer from its headquarters Nine-Zero in the March 11 raid by the Rangers.
This time, the MQM is in no a position to do any kind of manipulation, and as the situation stands in Karachi now, the Rangers and other law enforcement agencies will make it the most transparent and fair by-poll.
The MQM has never lost this seat since it is in the electoral arena. It can’t even think of being beaten here. If it is successful in retaining the seat, Altaf Hussain will rightly claim that even heavy odds couldn’t whittle down his appeal. But if it loses, a number of its myths will stand broken and previous charges about all earlier Karachi elections will hold ground.
In combination with a host of other factors, the hectic campaign of the PTI and JI in an area that houses Nine-Zero has helped remove the atmosphere of fear and scare in Karachi on an overall basis. In this connection, PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s wife Reham wrote while expressing her views on the social media on Saturday: Karachi NA 246 is not about a seat. It is about challenging fear tactics and liberating people.
The PTI chief holds his last campaign rally in Karachi on Sunday for the April 23 by-election. Extolling her husband, Reham wrote that from Yemen to Altaf Hussain only one man (Imran Khan) has shown leadership qualities. He has been taken bold decisions in both the cases. She also said there is only one leader who can and will go wherever he wants to in Pakistan. For others, KP begins and ends in Haripur, a thinly veiled dig on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has held a couple of political activities in this area.