ISLAMABAD: All sophisticated acts of terrorism are planned and strategized months in advance. All complex terrorist undertakings follow-more or less-a typical terrorist cycle that begins with ‘target selection’ followed by ‘team selection’, ‘distribution of labour’, ‘indoctrination and training’, ‘target surveillance’, ‘solicitation of logistical help’, ‘dry run’ and measures of ‘escape and evasion’.
My guess is that PAF Base Minhas, one of the hardest of all hard military targets, would have been selected as a target in May or June of this year. My guess is that an elite team to attack the Base would have been in place by the middle of June. My guess is that the selected team would have been under training for the past couple of months.
My guess is that the Base has been under active surveillance by the attackers for at least two months. And this is the phase where the PAF had a golden opportunity to block the attack. And this is where the PAF’s counter-surveillance failed (I am sure the Base had an active counter-surveillance in place).
To be certain, an attack of this magnitude and scale would not have been possible without critical inside intelligence help plus outside logistical support. At some stage the group that undertook the attack must have solicited assistance from inside the Base.
This is the phase where PAF’s intelligence failed to intercept. At some stage the group that undertook the attack must have solicited logistical help from the community surrounding the base. This is the phase where PAF’s intelligence failed to intercept.