Imran’s move can rattle PML-N

ISLAMABAD: The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) decision not to extend tenure of the Election Tribunals (ETs) ending on Sunday, particularly in the backdrop of the verdict of the three petitions in favour of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) raised serious questions after the outburst of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) against ET judge Kazim Ali. Is this a beginning of new conflict between the government and the opposition?
On the other hand, Imran has sped up his campaign against ECP and PML-N and likely to continue his pressure tactics till the by-elections, which he is unlikely to boycott and may take a risk of contesting from Lahore. This move can make Sharifs nervous.
Apparently, the move created doubts about nexus between ECP and PML-N and it further strengthens PTI stance against the ECP and its role in the 2013 general elections. Despite PML-N’s smart move to go to by-elections in NA-122, NA-154 and most likely in NA-125 as well, the ECP’s decision to wind up the ET, leaving uncertainty over the fate of the pending cases raised some doubts.
The ET’s tenure in the past had been extended and even when were given extension, they were informed being the final extension. Ideally, the ETs should have completed their jobs in four months after 2013 elections but they failed to complete their work even after two and a half years.
It is also true that former chief election commissioner (CEC) Justice (R) Fakhruddin G Ebrahim requested to appoint serving high court judges as ET chairman but his request was turned down on the ground that it could affect the court proceedings. Fakhru Bhai wanted petitions be disposed of within three to four months.
But in politics, timings are very important. The ECP which is already under pressure and has now practically become a party against PTI and Imran Khan, in a surprise move issued notification for the culmination of ETs tenure after August 30.
Like PML-N, ECP too looked under pressure and its back-to-back reactions to Imran and PTI followed by this decision may not go well for its credibility.
On the one hand, all the ECP members unanimously decided not to resign from their constitutional posts and would complete their tenure but still have not been able to defend their position on gross irregularities pointed out in the Judicial Commission report as well as in the last a few ET verdicts.
The PML-N leaders like Khawaja Saad Rafiq and Ayaz Sadiq were right when they say why they had been punished for election irregularities as no charges of rigging were mentioned in the ET verdicts.
But, the question is why PML-N still wants to go with this ECP set-up. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif can invite Imran Khan and other parliamentary leaders for early completion of electoral reforms and reconstitution of the ECP.
However, the three back-to-back defeats in the ET, Imran Khan’s challenges had put Sharifs on defensive and perhaps therefore, he asked his party leaders to respond to the challenge in the by-elections.
The decision surprised Imran and PTI leaders. Some of them conceded that they were expecting PML-N to opt for legal course through appeal and stay order. PML-N candidate Siddique Baloch from Lodhran NA-154 initially won the seat as independent, faced disqualification. In his case, the party allowed him to challenge his disqualification in the Supreme Court.
Imran has regained his lost position after Judicial Commission report thanks to these three ET verdicts against at least two top PML-N leaders. These decisions raised his lost morale and now he has turned his focus on ECP.
Using his cricketing experience in politics, he has put ECP on a defensive position. In these circumstances, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his close aides also used their political experience and decided against using stay order option. They know that the PTI record in the by-elections is quite poor and secondly, the party is facing internal rift in Lahore. This can give advantage to PML-N unless Imran Khan is able to resolve these differences.
Thus, both PML-N and PTI will now face each other in what may turn out to be highly tense contest in Lahore in the next 60 days.
These by-polls will also be the launching pad of high profile local bodies’ elections in Punjab, Sindh and Islamabad this year, which will be the barometer of popularity of the two key leaders, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan.
So, in a way, it will be something like mini-polls. The two also have their own advantages and disadvantages. The government always has its own advantages when it comes to local bodies’ polls but it will be a real test for PTI and Imran.
Thus, by-elections in Lahore NA-122 and NA-125, Lodhran NA-156 would be a setback for PML-N if it loses these polls.
Whereas PTI will find itself in a difficult position if by-elections are held as per schedule and Khwaja Saad Rafiq also gets his stay order vacated and goes for by-election.
In selection of the candidates, PML-N will have an advantage over PTI. For Sharifs, the automatic choice in NA-122 will be Ayaz Sadiq and in NA-125 Khawaja Saad Rafiq. However, he may face problems in NA-156 if Siddique Baloch could not get his name cleared.
For Imran, the situation would not have been very encouraging as far as selection of candidate is concerned, if he had not decided to contest from NA-122. His alternative Aleem Khan did not enjoy himself strong position within the party.
More or less same situation is there for Imran in NA-125. Despite some differences, he still wants to see Hamid Khan contesting against Khawaja Saad Rafiq. But, Khan will be facing opposition from Jehangir Tareen. Even if Aleem Khan gets the ticket, Jehangir Tareen group would internally oppose him.
The NA-122 election can become quite colourful if Imran backs Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad who has already announced if PTI does not contest from NA-125, he will face Khwaja Saad Rafiq. It can make election more colourful but at the same time both Imran and Sheikh Rasheed will take a lot of risk. If Sh Rasheed quits his Rawalpindi seat and loses in Lahore, it may not be easy for him to regain his home constituency again. In this way, he could be out of Parliament. But, if he wins from Lahore, it will be a far more embarrassing for PML-M and for Sharifs.
In NA-156, Tareen is the automatic choice for PTI chairman and PML-N may have to work really hard to defeat him. After Baloch’s disqualification, his voters may not vote for PML-N candidate.
The absence of Imran as a candidate would slim the chances of PTI in Lahore, as Imran wants at all costs to break the myth that the city belongs to Sharifs since 1985.
Should Imran take this risk of quitting his Rawalpindi seat to contest against his college days’ friend, Sardar Ayaz Sadiq? He is known for taking challenges and if he decides to contest, it may also help his party candidate or Sheikh Rasheed. If he has shifted his politics from Banigala to Zaman Park, he would take that risk.
Nawaz Sharif, on the other hand, wants to push back Imran and PTI on defensive position by retaining these two seats of Lahore. Where will a few thousand votes of other parties like PPP or Jamaat-e-Islami go? Will they back PTI or contest to spoil the party? PPP can bargain with PML-N on Sindh while JI can support PTI. The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.