ISLAMABAD: The Economic Survey 2012-13, being unveiled by Federal Minister for Finance Ishaq Dar on Tuesday, will brief about the dismal performance of macroeconomic sectors of the national economy when all targets were missed by huge margins.
The cost of war against terrorism, which escalated up to $90 billion to $100 billion, has also been made part of the survey. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has expressed his displeasure over the pathetic macroeconomic performance during the outgoing fiscal year and directed the minister of finance to fix responsibility for this bad situation.
The investment to GDP ratio has been consistently on the decline, raising fears about the future prospects of growth in the medium term.The Economic Survey 2012-13 will explain that the per capita income will go up to $1,380 in the outgoing fiscal year compared to $1,323 in the last financial year, registering an increase by 4.3 percent.
Owing to energy shortages, the Economic Survey will illustrate that Pakistan missed out its GDP growth target as it stands at 3.6 percent during the outgoing fiscal year against the envisaged target of 4.7 percent.
The electricity generation and distribution and gas distribution witnessed a major dip by registering a negative growth of minus 3.2 percent during the current fiscal year 2012-13 against a positive growth of 2.73 percent in the fiscal year 2011-12.
Out of the GDP growth estimates of 3.6 percent for 2012-13, the agriculture sector grew by 3.35 percent, industrial sector 3.49 percent and services sector 3.71 percent.
Of the agriculture growth at 3.35 percent, the growth of five major crops such as wheat, cotton, sugarcane, rice and maize stood at 2.31 percent, other crops 6.68 percent and cotton ginning witnessed a negative growth of minus 2.93 percent. The NCA estimates that the wheat production will be standing at 24.231 million tonnes and rice production at 61.8 million tonnes.
The livestock registered a growth of 3.68 percent after rebasing in 2012-13 from the revised estimates of 3.95 percent in 2011-12, forestry sector grew by 0.13 percent in 2012-13 from 1.74 percent in 2011-12 and fishing sector 0.65 percent in 2012-13 from 3.77 percent a year before.
In the industrial sector, the growth stands at 3.49 percent in the outgoing fiscal year with contribution of mining and quarrying sector growth of 7.58 percent, manufacturing 3.51 percent (large scale manufacturing 2.83 percent and small scale 8.23 percent), slaughtering 3.54 percent, electricity generation & distribution and gas distribution negative minus 3.20 percent, construction 5.18 percent and commodity producing sectors 3.71 percent.
In the automobile sector, the growth in numbers of buses declined by minus 9.9 percent, trucks negative 28.24 percent, LCVs 27 percent and motorcycles 2.45 percent. The number of produced tractors witnessed an impressive growth of 60 percent in 2012-13.
In terms of Gross Value Addition (GVA), the growth of Pakistan Railways declined by 471 percent during the current fiscal year compared to the previous financial year while air transport went up by 38.22 percent.
In the services sector, the GDP grew by 3.71 percent in the outgoing fiscal year with contribution of wholesale and retail trade growth of 2.52 percent, transport, storage and communication 3.44 percent, finance & insurance 6.64 percent, housing services 3.99 percent, general government services 5.60 percent and other private services 3.99 percent.